Game Day: Thursday, August 6th

I'm feeling better today.  Waiting out the rain in the shed at Home Depot.  Hopefully I can get back to hiking soon.  300 more miles to go this summer.

It's an all encompassing effort but I have some down time today and I'd like to get back to the baseball posts.  The trade deadline has passed and that was madness in some way.  Exciting but exhausting and difficult to focus on the standings and the games.

What it amounts to, after the trade deadline, is seven teams competing for one Wild Card in the AL and seven teams competing for two Wild Cards in the NL.  

The Cubs look likely to win a Wild Card but the Phillies, Padres, Pirates, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Reds and the Marlins are all within 5 games of the Wild Card and remain in contention.  The Nationals have bowed out of the race in some regard but are also within 5.5 games of a Wild Card birth in the NL.

The AL East looks to have two wild card spots sewn up.  The Yankees, the Rays and the Red Sox are vying for the division crown and all three look likely to make the playoffs as either the division champion or as a Wild Card.  The Orioles and the Blue Jays are both still in contention for the final Wild Card spot in the AL.

The AL West and the AL Central are also tightly contested races.  Three teams in the AL West and four teams in the AL Central could win the division title.  That leaves five teams vying for the final Wild Card.  Seven teams total competing for one Wild Card birth in the AL.

Let's Take a Look at the AL West

The Astros currently sit atop the AL West, a 1.5 games up on the Texas Rangers and 2.5 games up on the Seattle Mariners but it's the Mariners at (-125) who are the odds on favorite to win the division.  The Astros are currently a (+115) and the Rangers are getting no credit at (+330).  

My opinion on the three teams is that it is really a wide open race and any of the three teams could emerge including Texas and that makes the Rangers at (+330) a good bet.  In some way they have the deepest stable of starting pitchers.  DeGrom and Eovaldi have managed to stay healthy all season.  Gore has been steady as the three and Cal Quantrill has emerged as a viable option at the back of the rotation.  Quantrill is pitching as good as he has in his entire career.  Jack Leiter should return from the IR soon and both Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery are set to return from the IR as well sometime in August after missing the entire season recovering from elbow surgeries.  Kumar Rocker is pitching good innings too.  Eight starters gives the Rangers some sort of the depth in the pitching department that the Astros and the Mariners don't have.  The Rangers also added catcher Logan O'Hoppe from the Angels and he can slug a little.  They added Chase Silseth and Ben Peoples to the bullpen.  Silseth has pitched good innings this season in Anaheim and is a difference maker.

They won't get Jung back until September and Corey Seager has battled injuries all season but I like the Rangers to find a way to win this division.  If they can get healthy and get hot with the bats, they have the pitching to win.  I like the odds at (+330) and I might be talking myself into this pick.  In fact, I'm certain that is the case but let's roll with it.

The Mariners have been soft all season.  Trade deadline acquisition Taylor Ward is a nice addition to the lineup but he replaces Luke Raley who was lost for the season and in some way isn't much of upgrade.  The return of Brendan Donovan is the biggest difference maker for this Mariners team in August and could have a substantial impact on this team.  Donovan has been on the IR most of the season with a groin strain.

Seranthony Dominguez adds to the bullpen but cost the team veteran starter Luis Castillo.  They will be relying heavily on their five-man rotation and its one of the best in baseball.  Prospects Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan off the team insurance in the case of an injury but are they going to pitch some innings in September?  I'd say its likely, they have both dominated AA this season and a late season call up won't affect their rookie status in '27.  

The Mariners are the rightful favorites to win the division.  At full strength, with a pair of aces up their sleeve in Anderson and Sloan, the M's could win this division easily.  They haven't played their best baseball.  Cal "The Big Dumper" Raleigh has been on the can all season but this team has some good bats when they are healthy and if Raleigh gets it going, he is an epic masher of home runs who can win games single-handedly with his bat.

Astros have a good team.  Their bullpen with Imai and Blubaugh could be the best in the MLB.  If Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Crsitian Javier are at their best, this team can compete for the World Series but that's asking a lot.  Blanco and Wesneski are both recently activated from the IR, returning from Tommy John surgeries.  Cristian Javier hasn't pitched good innings since returning from his elbow surgery earlier this summer and had spent time on the IR as well this season.  Their rotation is shaky at best and has very little depth.  Unlike the Mariners, they don't have a pair of aces waiting in the wings.

The offense at the top could be outstanding.  Yordan Alvarez is vying for the Triple Crown in the AL and Jeremy Pena is a proven and consistent hitter at shortstop.  Christian Walker is having a good season at the olater and Isaac Paredes is a good hitter too.  The addition of Daulton Varsho in the outfield adds some power to this lineup and Jose Altuve could have a little life in his bat yet.

Cam Smith has been streaky but all three young olayers at the bottom of the Astros lineup are hitting.  If Smith, Yanier Diaz at catcher and Taylor Trammell all continue to hit well, this is anvery dangerous Astros team that can score a lot of runs.  

They could have a great bullpen.  The starting pitching is teetering on the brink of disaster and for that reason I have to put them behind both the Rangers and the Astros in the race for the AL West title.

It's going to be a great race no matter who wins the division.  Three fairly equally matched teams heading down the stretch.  I normally root for the Astros, they have been one of my favorite teams over the past decade but this season I'm rooting for DeGrom and Burger and the Texas Rangers and I do like that bet at (+330).  

Looking forward to seeing how the division plays out. 

That's it for Game Day today.  It's been a difficult summer and Im tired but Im going to try and finish strong.  Hopefully I can get a pick in today.  I'm looking forward to getting back to the picks and racking some units.  

Popular posts from this blog

Postgame Report: MIN -1.5 (-120) Loss

It's 8-2 in the eighth.  Twins lost this one.  Joe Ryan had a bad game.  I'm not looking into this one too far. I picked the game I liked the most, it was the heaviest favorite on the board outside of the Orioles and the pitching matchup, in my opinion, was as good as it gets. Mitchell Parker had a good game.  One thing I can't understand is why Rocco Baldelli stacked his lineup with righties to start the game.  I get that Parker is a lefty but if you look at his splits and you look at his pitch stats, you can see clearly that he gets outs against right handed hitters and gets mashed by lefties.   Baldelli left all three of his lefties on the bench tonight.  Both of the Twins switch hitters took at bats from the right hand side of the plate.  Eight righties in the Twins lineup tonight opened up Parker's game and he got the win.   I noticed it before the game started.  I should have taken the bet off but thought that Ryan and th...
Read more

Today's Pick: A 2 Team Parlay

I have 1.56 units in play after yesterday's quasi-disappointment.   I'm going to rack a unit, and play a two team parlay tonight.  I've been stuck on 32 units banked for two weeks now.   I can't stand the number 32.  It has everything to do with Magic Johnson.  I don't like magic and I don't like Johnson.   Anyhow, now that we have 33 units in the bank, I feel better. Jose Canseco wore number 33.  Still one of my favorite players of all time.   No analysis today, I'm just making a pick.  My season for the most part is over.  I have 0.56 units in play, 4.0 units in my account, and 33 units in the bank.   The pick is a parlay on the Astros (-350) ML / Blue Jays (-175) ML for a (+105) payout. I like the pick.  Im happy with the plus money.  Have to win them both to cash a ticket but I like the play.   Today's Pick:  PAR:  TOR (-180) ML / HOU (-350) ML over Units in Play:  0.56...
Read more

Postgame Report: MIL (-130) Winner

The Brewers kept it rolling last night, winning their fifth game in a row with a 7-2 victory over the Braves.   Joey Wentz cruised through the first two innings.  He had three K's and retired six in a row.   Brewer's center fielder Blake Perkins led off the third with a base hit.  Danny Jansen flew out to right.  Perkins stole second base.  Nine hole hitter Joey Ortiz put the ball in the gap and recorded an infield single that moved the runner to third.  Leadoff hitter Caleb Durbin walked to load the bases.   Bases loaded with one out.   Joey Wentz got a shallow fly ball from William Contreras.  Two down with Christian Yellich at the plate.  He got ahead 0-2 on Yellich and made a good pitch with the curveball but the veteran didn't chase.  Yellich collected an RBI on an infield hit that scored Perkins from third.  It's a 1-0 game.  Andrew Vaughn at the plate.  Wentz got ahead of Vaughn 0-2 and...
Read more