Game Day: Friday, August 14th
Today, I want to take a close look at the standings in each division heading into the games this weekend.
I have been out of touch with the games since the trade deadline. The teams have all played around ten games in August and I feel like I can get back in a rythym with the posts and the picks if I can get a good feel for how each team has played to begin the month.
Let's take a quick look at the standings in each division.
NL West
The Padres have been playing better than any team in the division and that includes the Dodgers. Winners of five in a row and seven of their last ten games, San Diego is now only eight games back of LA for first place in the division. It isn't an insurmountable deficit. San Diego's schedule looks as soft as any team in MLB into October and they play three games with the Dodgers at the end of September. The Diamondbacks have played .500 baseball since the beginning of the month but their schedule looks difficult to close out August. They get the Braves, the Red Sox and the Cubs in the next two weeks. September isn't much easier for the Snakes. In fact, the D'Backs might have the most difficult schedule of any team in the NL over the next six weeks of play. It certainly bodes well for the Padres who hold a 1.0 game lead over Arizona in the Wild Card Standings. LA has been beating bad teams. They have been getting handled by contenders. Cubs swept them to begin the month and they lost the opener to the Brewers yesterday. LA plays a soft enough schedule down the stretch that an eight game lead should be enough to hold onto the division. Padres schedule and the improvements to the rotation that they made at the trade deadline make it likely that they will end the season in second place in the NL West.
NL Central
The biggest development in the NL Central is the implosion of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are 9-17 since the All-Star break and 4-8 in the month of August. They could be out of contention by the end of the month. Pittsburgh plays series against Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles (Dodgers), San Diego and St. Louis over the next two weeks. They stand 6.0 games back of the Wild Card in the NL and that schedule likely has them 10.0 games back into September. The Reds lost Hunter Greene for the season and play a horrendous schedule in September. They are 5.5 games back and with the way their bullpen has pitched this season, I'd have to put long odds on Cincinnati to make the playoffs. Getting swept by the Nationals last week is a tell. The Reds don't have it together this season. The Cardinals, on the hand, are better than everybody expected and are in the race. Winners of seven of their last ten games, a series win in New York against the Yankees, a series win at home against the Phillies, this team is playing good baseball. Big series this weekend with the Cubs, who have also been playing well in August. Chicago is 8-2 over their Last10 and just 4.0 games back of the Brewers for the division crown. A fairly tough schedule into October for the Cubs, seven games with the Brewers in September, big games for both ball clubs. Milwaukee has held court. 7-6 in August and playing good baseball. A healthy Brewers' team will be difficult to unseat at the top of the NL Central but the Cubs are within striking distance and will be getting some players back from the IR soon that could make this the most interesting divisional race in MLB in September.
NL East
The Braves look to be as much or more of a lock to win their division than the Dodgers. They currently hold a nine game lead over the Phillies and are playing better than every team in the division. 8-3 in August, a tough schedule down the stretch, seven games with Philadelphia in September, they could potentially lose their grip on the division if Philly can keep it rolling. Philly has played well, 8-5 in August and scoring runs. They currently hold the final Wild Card in the NL by 0.5 game over the Diamondbacks, 2.5 up on the Marlins and 3.0 games ahead of the Cardinals. Speaking of the Marlins, they are doing a good job beating up on bad teams but the schedule thickens up in September and this team is short on pitching in the rotation. The Nationals are also a team that is fading despite a sweep over the Reds. If they can't take care of business against the Marlins this month, they play seven games against Miami, I'd say it is a good tell that they won't be competitive in September and will likely fall short of the playoffs this season.
AL West
It was a heated three-team race until the Mariners faded. Seattle is 4-8 in August and scrambling but if they can hold on tight, they play a soft schedule in September. They have the pitching to win games and could make up the deficit. Seattle plays the Astros, Cubs, Brewers and the Phillies over the next two weeks. Big games that will make or break their season. .500 baseball will keep them in contention. If they lose more ground in the division to both the Astros and the Rangers to close the month, a Wild Card is unlikely. Seattle needs to keep pace with both teams if they are to have any hope of making the playoffs. Houston leads the division by 2.0 games over the Rangers and 5.0 over the Mariners. They play 15 games with the Mets, A's, Royals and Angels into October. A series with the White Sox, a series with the Diamondbacks and five games with Seattle. It's a soft schedule and Houston's bullpen is pitching as good as it has all season. The Astros are the favorites in the AL West because of their schedule. The Rangers are entering the weekend having dropped three of four in Anaheim. Losing three against the Angels is a real stinger but Texas plays an easier schedule than the Astros over the next six weeks. They play series with the A's, the Nationals, the White Sox and the Brewers to close the month. If they can stay within a few games of the Astros, September offers them an opportunity to close the gap and win the division. All three teams remain in contention. The next two weeks will be important for all three teams.
AL Central
It's the most competitive division in baseball amongst four of the most mediocre teams in the AL. The White Sox lead the division by 2.5 games over the Tigers but they just got swept by the Red Sox and lost a series to the Reds. Chicago is 4-7 in August and losing ground to Detroit, who they play this weekend at Comerica Park. It's a big series. The Tigers, despite trading their top2 starting pitchers, are the best team in the division and are the only team with a winning record in August. They still have the best rotation of any team in the division and have called up rookie sensation, Max Clark, in an effort to fortify their lineup. Detroit is the team to be beat. The Guardians have faded. They got swept by the Mets and are 3-8 in August. It isn't looking good in Cleveland. They play an easy schedule to close the month. The Guards could turn it around heading into September. The Twins are 4-8 in August but they play more division games than any team in the AL Central. Six games against the White Sox, six games against Detroit and a three-game set with the Guardians. This gives them as good of an opportunity as any team in the division. If they take care of business against their division foes, they can make up the deficit and emerge with the AL Central crown. The AL Central is wide open in many ways.
AL East
The Rays may have put a stamp on it with the way they have played since the All-Star break. Winners of nine in a row and 10-1 in August, Tampa is once again comfortably in front in the AL East. 6.5 games up on New York, 9.5 games up on the Red Sox. They play a tough schedule into October but they are as good of a team as any team in MLB and they have proven that. Only the Brewers have more wins than the Rays this season. The Yankees are treading water awaiting the return of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Carlos Rodon. Three of their most important players. They have the best team in the division when they are healthy but they wont be until at least September and it might be too late. Boston is still playing good baseball. 7-5 in August, a fairly soft schedule into October, they won't challenge for the division but they are likely to hold onto a Wild Card. They are 5.0 games up on Detroit and 5.5 up on the Rangers. It would be a catastrophe were they to slip out of the playoffs after putting together such an epic run this summer. Both the Blue Jays and the Orioles are in contention for the final Wild Card in the AL. Both teams are 2.0 games back of Detroit in the AL Wild Card standings. The Blue Jays are 8-5 in August, winners of series against Houston, Boston and Philadelphia. They have beaten good teams to get back in contention and that definitely has them playing with some momentum. Over the next two weeks, they play six games with the Yankees and a three-game series with Tampa. It is the most important stretch of games all season. Win three series to close the month agaisnt the two best teams in the AL and the Blue Jays are all of sudden legitimate contenders. The Orioles are 4-7 in August and they are in the same boat as Toronto. Six games against Tampa and a three-game series against the Yankees to close the month. Out together some wins and gain some momentum into September. The Orioles and the Blue Jays are battling for the final Wild Card in the AL. Big games in the next two weeks for both ball clubs.
It's a long post. I'm going to wrap it up for the day. Tomorrow, Ill review my preseason picks and make my picks for each division and for the Wild Cards in both the AL and the NL.
I'm hoping to get a pick in tonight. Most of the games start later this evening. There should be plenty of time to study the games and get a bet in.
Stay Tuned.