Game Day: Friday, July 17th

Games resume today around the league with two full weeks of play before the August 3rd trade deadline, the last day of the regular season that teams can trade players from their 40-man rosters.  

What is most interesting about the trade deadline is that, in some way, teams announce their intentions for the remainder of the season.  Teams who trade away impact players for prospects are planning ahead for next year and teams who add veterans on expiring contracts are doing so with the hopes of making a run at the playoffs this season. 

It is a narrowing of the field that sets the tone for the remainder of the regular season. 

There are some question marks in both the AL and the NL with a number of teams stuck in-betwern.  Teams that aren't clearly out of the contest but aren't all that confident in their teams' ability to win the games down the stretch.  

The next two weeks will be very important with many competitive games on the schedule.  It's crunch time.  

Let's focus in on the AL.

If I had to pick five teams as sellers in the AL:

--  Minnesota Twins (49-48)
--  Houston Astros (47-51)
--  Oakland Athletics (41-55)
--  Kansas City Royals (38-59)
--  Los Angeles Angels (38-59)

Out of Contention

The A's, Royals and Angels are out of contention and are playing without any urgency.  Count them as lacking the motivation to win for the sake of the prize.  They may get in a rythym of playing loose and having fun and that spirit has a way of winning games but its unlikely to emerge until after the trade deadline.  

The next two weeks will be difficult for teams that are selling at the deadline.  Players who have been integral to the team all season are on the block.  Losing a player that has been a primary contributor all season can create a vacancy that is difficult to fill.  I'll be looking to bet against these three teams into August.

Opportunity Costs Too High

The Twins have too many valuable trade chips and too many question marks to pass on cashing in.  Despite having a winning record, Minnesota needs to stick to their plan and make the big trades at the deadline.  The Astros also have big trade chips and too many question marks to go all-in this season.  Both teams could make lateral moves with some sort of hope to compete into October, I think that is possible, but I count both teams as sellers entering play this evening.  Big trades are likely from both teams.

The AL teams that I'll be watching closely this week:

--  Boston Red Sox (46-48)
--  Toronto Blue Jays (45-51)
--  Baltimore Orioles (46-51)
--  Detroit Tigers (44-52)

All four are stuck in-between in some sense.  Lose a bunch of games over the next two weeks and selling is a real possibility.  Win a bunch of games and push all your chips in at the trade deadline with a real shot at the playoffs and the World Series.  

That makes for some exciting games this week.

The Red Sox host the Rays, Orioles and the Blue Jays in a ten-game home stand at Fenway Park.  It's an AL East bonanza!  Big games in Boston for the next ten days.  

The Blue Jays host the White Sox at the Rogers Centre this weekend.  It is a make or break series for Toronto.  Lose this series and its over.  If you can't beat the White Sox at home you might as well cash it in.  Two of three is a must.  Big games in Toronto this weekend and that is exciting.

The Orioles are on the road in Houston this weekend.  It's a big series.  The O's need this series. Baltimore plays Boston, Atlanta and Detroit into the end of the month.  They need all the momentum they can get heading into a difficult stretch of games.

The Tigers are on the road for a three-game series with the Angels opening tonight in Anaheim.  The opener is a big game for Detroit.  If they can get by Detmers Friday night, they have two games on the weekend with Skubal and Mize on the mound against Grayson Rodriguez and Ryan Johnson.  

It's four big series for four teams who need to put together some wins in the next two weeks. 

I'm looking forward to the games this weekend.  I'll be back with a pick before post time.  

Stay tuned.  

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