Sunday MLB Recap: June 7th, 2026

It was a good week, good effort into Saturday night.  Another tough loss for the Pickstreak blog, six losses in a row.  I enjoyed following the games, making the picks and the losing, it's difficult, but in doing the work everyday, the rewards will find a way to materialize.  The challenge is a reward in its own way.  It keeps me on my game and keeps me in the fight.

Only three wins this season.  My new strategy has been under fire but I believe it is the right strategy and that I'm picking well.  Last season, I only played four parlays.  This season, I adjusted my strategy to play primarily parlays.  That is the major difference between my strategy with the bets last season and my strategy with the bets this season.

When it comes to game selection, my strategy hasn't changed much.  I'm looking at starting pitchers, recency bias, how have they fared over their last two, last five starts.  I'm looking at baserunners.  Strikeout to walk ratios, HR/9 and ERA to FIP differentials.  I'm looking at splits, how have they fared at home, on the road, in day games, under the lights.  I'm looking at matchups.  How does my pitcher matchup up against the opposing lineup?  I'm trying to find wide advantages in the starting pitching matchups.  I'm betting on teams swinging the bat well and scoring runs.  I look at the last ten games and calculate runs per game over a rolling ten game period.  I like teams who have hit the ball well in their last two games. I'm always looking at bullpens.  Whose rested, whose likely to pitch?  What teams are throwing well as a group over the past month?  I like to use team xFIP values for bullpens.  Fangraphs is great for this.  I do all my research using the resources available to me, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, the daily boxscores.  I don't utilize any algorithms, I'm not calculating the advantage, I eyeball the numbers and make my picks.  I do research both sides of a game and I do research many games every day.  

In my current station, with my current tools, I don't have the capacity to research every game.  I look at the daily slate of games and filter out a handful of games each day to dig in on. I think I can improve in this department.  If I can find a better way to filter the games before I start my daily research, I may be able to improve my win rates.  

With the right setup, with premium subscriptions to data feeds and python, I could certainly automate this entirely.  I could write and program the proprietary algorithms and make selections based entirely on the output.  There are a number of statisticians doing this and some are likely having success but I believe there is a human element to making the picks that will in the end emerge victorious.  I believe my understanding of the game and my feel for momentum based on insights gained following the games and the news cycles day in and day out can yield a big advantage if applied consistently within a structured process and that is what Pickstreak is about. 

A gray-box system would be useful.  

I had wanted to test three approaches:

1.  Human Selection - basically utilizing the same methodology that I use today for researching the games, making the picks and managing the bankroll. This would be a gray-box approach.  All decisions would be made by me but I would have custom views to extract and present the data in a workflow that allowed me to more easily make the decisions.  The tools I have aty.disposal.currently are sufficient but if I could pull everything up in one singular view without having to jump back and forth between websites and web pages, I could research every game every day and that could lead to better picks.  

2.  Algorithms - I'd create an advanced algorithm utilizing all the available data that would calculate expected value and bet the games with the highest advantage.  The Superfan Sports app is doing this and is presenting picks everyday.  I could use their EV picks and bet size and create a system based entirely on their numbers but I don't have any sense for what is behind their calculations and would be more comfortable developing my own algorithms.  It would take a significant amount of work but I do have a rough outline in place. This would be a black-box approach.

3.  Dart Board - I had wanted to test a system that utilized a completely random game selection process paired with a structured wagering component.  The games that are selected for the bets would be selected without concern to the team statistics or the player performances.  The bet type would be randomized, the bet size would be calculated based on the odds of the bet that is structured by the randomized bet selector.  Risk management would follow a structured approach.  This would also be a black-box system.  

It would be three unique strategies.  The Capper, the Computer and the Dart Board.  I'd post a write up for each.  I'd do all the writing.

I'm a long way off from getting to that point but I think it would be an interesting exposition in some way and an interesting read from day to day for those who find the bookies' game to be entertaining.

In today's Sunday MLB Recap, I'd also like to further review the parlay bet from yesterday.  There were three late games on the West Coast and I couldn't stay up late to cover the results.  I really liked that bet last night.  It ended up 2-2, two wins and two losses.  It's a losing bet and a loser is a loser but what went right and what went wrong?

What went right with our parlay last night?  Misiorowski and Yamamoto aced their starts. Nolan McLean did bounce back with 6.0 innings.  Three aces pitched well. 

What went wrong?  The 5th and the 6th inning for McClanahan.  Estuery Ruiz and Javier Sanoja rattled him.  Sanoja hit the first pitch he saw from McClanahan in the second inning for a base hit.  He hit the second pitch he saw from McClanahan in the fifth inning over the left field wall.  He hit the third pitch he saw from Mclanahan in the sixth for an RBI base hit.  That is frustrating.  

Ruiz was working him like a dog.  An eight-pitch walk in the second.  A six-pitch walk in the fifth.  He went from first to third on a stolen base and error.  McClanahan plunked Ruiz in the sixth after Ruiz worked him to a 3-1 count on five pitches.  

That was it for McLanahan.  

You have to give credit to Javier Sanoja and Estuery Ruiz last night.  The duo got under McClanahan's skin and took him out of the game.  Marlins' bullpen combined for the win. Lake Bachar, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher were all with the Marlins last season.  They have a year together as a group and that melding in the bullpen has a way of improving results for the entirety of the group.  They are three good pitchers with a year of experience pitching together.  They are a unit and that showed up last night.

Pickstreak also has to send Griffin Canning some credit.  5.0 innings for the Padres, he only allowed three hits, one earned run and struck out six.  It was a big start for the righty and for a Padres' team that needed a win.  McLean pitched well for us but Canning matched his effort and we were expecting three runs off Canning last night.  

The bullpen games can be a conundrum for a better.  I have followed the games closely this season and on more than one occasion, I have noticed a bullpen shut a team down to three or less runs over the course of nine innings.  The Blue Jays come to mind.  The Dodgers have done it.  The Marlins did it last night.  Generally, I feel like there are good opportunities to bet against teams throwing bullpen games and these opportunities should improve as the season wears on but it is difficult to discount a well-rested bullpen.  

Bullpens are winning games.  The Braves bullpen has been elite and they lead the NL in wins.  The Dodgers bullpen has been a top5 group and they lead the NL West.  The Brewers bullpen has been deep and effective.  The Mariners, Rays and Guardians have all gotten strong pitching from their relievers.  All six divisions, the team at the top has gotten good pitching from their bullpen.  White Sox bullpen has been real good and they are surprising everyone this season.  Padres have the worst offense in MLB, their rotation is a collection of threes and fours and they are three games above .500 because their bullpen wins games.

The bullpen games replacing a five in the rotation or serving as the sixth man is a interesting strategy.  Stacking the bullpen with three or four starters.  Throwing a pair of starters as a five.  It can be an effective strategy at the back of a rotation and carrying eight starters mitigates injury concerns to some degree.  

Middle relievers are the next big thing in MLB.  For the past few seasons, the league has placed a significant premium on high-leverage relievers at the top of a bullpen but it's the middle relievers who are pumping this season.  Pitchers like Drew Anderson in Detroit and Shane Drohan in Milwaukee.  Cal Quantrill in Texas has been that guy.  Sean Newcomb in Chicago.  A guy who can take a spot start on occasion or piggyback a start early in the week and give you 2.0 to 3.0 innings in middle relief later in the week is a valuable player.  

That's it for Sunday.  No pick today.  I'm going to regroup and rethink my selection process some today, research the team trends some and see if I can make a small adjustment in my process.  Back tomorrow to take another swing at it.  Stay tuned.