Game Day: Thursday, June 18th

The brain trust at ESPN put together an article listing the top100 players who could be available at the trade deadline, ranking them in importance from 1 to 100 and that is an impressive effort and an interesting exercise in thought but their credibility is entirely destroyed in the analysis of Tarik Skubal's trade market.  

In the article written by Kylie McDaniel and Jeff Passan, they list Tarik Skubal as a good fit for every single contending team at the trade deadline.  That is in many ways an exageration that makes no sense.

Let's break down their "best fits" for Tarik Skubal.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are a good fit but they don't necessarily need Skubal with how well Wrobleski, Sheehan and Sasaki are pitching.  Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are going to return to the rotation and they aren't bums.  They are top-of-the-rotation talents, well-rested, with experience in big games.  A rotation of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Sasaki with Sheehan and Wrobleski in tow doesn't necessitate the addition of Tarik Skubal in any way.  In fact, if I'm the Dodgers, it's a hard pass. 

The Dodgers don't have many needs but they could use an impact bat in the infield.  As good as their bullpen has been, they could well afford to add a bullpen arm as well.  That route adds to the offense and solidifies their bullpen into a unit that will be very difficult to beat. 

The Dodgers would lay out their entire farm system for Brice Turang.  Would the Brewers make that trade?  Jeremy Pena is more likely.  

I don't see Skubal with the Dodgers but it isn't out of the question.  It is the wrong trade LA.  

New York Yankees

The Yankees have the best rotation in baseball.  Better than the Dodgers if you ask me about it.  When Max Fried returns, they have to move starters Ryan Weathers and Clarke Schmidt to the bullpen, assuming Schmidt returns this season.  Who are they going to move out of the rotation if they acquire Tarik Skubal?  Will Warren?  That would be a travesty.  Will Warren is an ace.  Are you going to send Cam Schlittler to the minors?  

Tarik Skubal doesn't fit on the Yankees unless one of their top five goes down with a season-ending injury and even in that case, the Yanks have Ryan Weathers, Clarke Schmidt and Elmer Rodriguez to plug the gap.  I can't see the Yankees paying the price to add Tarik Skubal.  

They need a bat at the catcher position and a pair of bullpen arms.  They would lay it all out for Shea Langeliers.  Tarik Skubal doesn't compare to the dream of Langeliers at catcher.  He isn't on the Yankees radar.

Milwaukee Brewers

Can we take Milwaukee out of the discussion?  I'm not certain but this would be an epic surprise.  Milwaukee has some good position player prospects but I'm not sure they have the pitching prospects to get the trade done.  If Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams on the A-side is a deal, it's a possibility but that is about as good as the Tigers will do trading with the Brewers.  

They aren't going to mortgage their farm to acquire Tarik Skubal down the stretch.  With Logan Henderson and Brandon Woodruff expected to return, the Brewers have a strong front three.  They are likely in the market for a starting pitcher but Skubal is well above what they are willing to pay.  I'd count the Brewers as out on Skubal unless the market softens to the point that it is the only deal on the table.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays would rather be sellers than buyers this season.  They played their way into an awkward spot.  They'd love to cash in on Nick Martinez and knowing the Rays, it isn't out of the question.  

The Rays aren't paying up for Skubal and even if they had the prospects, they wouldn't make that kind of trade.  The Rays will be dealing and their modus has them as buyers and sellers at the deadline.  I can see them trading a starter and I can see them trading for a starter but they won't mortgage their farm for a Tarik Skubal rental.  

They are going to compete this season.  A Yandy Diaz trade is out of the question.  They need a bat or two.  Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach would be nice additions for a run at a title.  They likely can't match Philly's offer (see below). They have prospects to get a deal done but they are always about value.   Expect the Rays to take a more sensible approach at the end of July.  

Atlanta Braves

This trade makes sense if the Tigers are willing to take back Spencer Schwellenbach or Hurston Waldrep in a package with Didier Fuentes and/or JR Ritchie.  The Braves would have Sale, Skubal and Elder at the top of the rotation with Grant Holmes, one of Schwellenbach / Waldrep and Martin Perez and that puts them in contention for a title.  

I contend they have a real issue with trust in Ronald Acuna Jr. and that makes it difficult to trade away Fuentes, Schwellenbach or Waldrep.  Until the Acuna situation is settled, I'd expect the Braves to be on the sidelines for a major trade.  Martin Perez has pitched well this season and if one of Waldrep or Schwellenbach is effective down the stretch, the Braves will have a deep enough rotation to forgo spending big on the top dog.  They will likely look elsewhere if they are interested in adding a starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

One odd ball idea would be Skubal, Javier Baez, Eduardo Valencia, Thayron Liranzo, Ben Malgeri for Acuna, Kim, Schwellenbach, Fuentes and Jon Gil.

A trade along those lines is very interesting but I don't think the teams have the creativity to come to that conclusion.   I'd count the Braves as out of Skubal.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are definitely in but there is a better trade out there for Dave Dombrowski.

Philadelphia is looking at playing Kyle Schwarber at first base, moving Harper to the outfield.  It tells me that they are interested in adding a pair of bats.  An outfielder and a DH.  

The Twins and the Phillies are working on Joe Ryan, Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers trade.  That moves JT Realmuto into the DH.  This is the deal the Phillies really want to make this season.  

Id expect Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, Gage Wood and more heading to Minnesota.  The Phillies will stack that trade with all they have.  I don't see them pivoting off this trade to land Skubal if it falls through.  They will go with Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo and Nola and add a lessor starting pitcher because they are set on adding a pair of bats to help the offense.  

Here are five potential trades for Tarik Skubal:

New York Mets

If the Mets are in contention at the trade deadline, the Mets will trade for Tarik Skubal.  They have more than a few good pitching prospects available and Detroit needs to get two starting pitchers on the A-side to make this trade work.  

Christian Scott and Jonah Tong would get the deal done.  

Skubal, Peralta, McLean and Holmes would give the Mets a good shot at making the playoffs and they can win with that rotation.  

The big question is, will the Mets be in contention at the end of July? If they are, I'd expect this to be the best trade available for the Tigers.  If they aren't, the Mets won't be in on Skubal.

It is possible for the Mets to swing this deal as soon as possible.  A trade could be imminent.  It would be a big risk for a team that is eight games under .500 but it isn't out of the question for an owner who has shown the willingness to spend.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade in the next week or two but only the Mets have this kind of vigor.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are only 1.5 games back of the Wild Card and this team needs an ace as badly as any team in contention but I'm uncertain if they are willing to gamble like the Mets are and I don't think Detroit would pass on a June deal with New York.

It creates two scenarios for the Orioles.

1.  Make a better offer in June.  

The Orioles can stack a nice trade that is as good or better than what the Mets can offer.  The deal in June will cost.  They risk missing out if they pass on the June trade because the Mets are likely in discussion with the Tigers as I write this article.  If the O's are willing to gamble, they have the prospects to sweeten the pot and make the deal.  

2.  Wait until the trade deadline.  

If the Mets make the trade in June, they were willing to take a risk that the Orioles weren't willing to take.  The O's look elsewhere for their starter.  If for some reason the Mets also bow out of a June deal for the Tiger's ace, they can revisit the idea of trading for Skubal at the end of July.

I'd reckon both options as viable and I think the second option is the better option for an Orioles team.

#1, it's going to cost.  Trey Gipson, Nestor German, Luis DeLeon and Joseph Dzierwa.  A package like that could usurp the Mets and have Skubal in Baltimore by the Fourth of July but is it worth it for a Baltimore team that is two games under .500?  

I'd wait until the trade deadline and hope for a softer deal.  If you can't get Skubal at the end of July, there will be another pitcher available and you can keep Gipson in the rotation down the stretch.  

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a good baseball team.  They have the prospects and need an ace.  They should be in the discussion early and they can stack a trade but are they willing to gamble on a June deal?

Javier Assad and Ben Brown have pitched very well for the Northsiders.  They are expecting both Jason Steele and Matthew Boyd to return this season and until they get a good look at both, they don't know what they have in-house.  Cabrera, Imanaga and Taillon are difficult to give up on.  

I think the Cubs should be all-in on Skubal in June.  Wiggins, Wicks, Alcantara and a stack on the B-side.  They should get this trade done now and do their best to save some ammo for a pair of bullpen arms at the trade deadline.  The offense is set.  They don't need to add a bat.  If they an land Skubal, they can win the World Series.

I don't know if they have the balls to make the trade.  I'd count them as not having the balls to make the trade until the July deadline but if Skubal is still available after the all-star break and the Cubs are in contention, I'd expect them to move all-in for the ace.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are seemingly all in this season.  I can see the Blue Jays trading their top pitching prospects for a Skubal rental but it is a very difficult trade for the Blue Jays to make.  One of Jake Bloss or Johnny King would likely need to be included and the Blue Jays don't want to trade either.

They are going to lose Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber at the end of the '26 season.  Jake Bloss is the best bet to help the rotation in '27.  Johnny King is too good of a prospect to part with.  

It's a difficult trade to make for Toronto.  If Arun Nimmala, JoJo Parker, Ricky Teidmann and Gage Stanifer can swing a deal, its likely a done deal.

Is the trade good for Detroit?  If they are set on trading Skubal and the Blue Jays include Bloss or King, expect Skubal in Toronto.  Otherwise, Toronto's offer is likely short.  

San Diego Padres

The Padres would cash everything in their account for Skubal, whether it be in June or at the end of July but do they have enough to make it nice for the Tigers?  

They could really use Luis Arraez at the top of their lineup.  He should be there top priority.  They missed on Jonah Heim.  They missed on Heineman.

I think the Padres should see about Alcantara and Agustin Ramirez.  Suffer the bad defense at the C position.  They likely don't have the prospects to make that trade either but it would be great to see Alcantara, Arraez and Ramirez with the Friars in August.  If Preller can pull it off, it would be one heck of a trade deadline.  

That's how I see the market for Tarik Skubal.  It is a strong market that has potential to collapse.  The Mets trade shouldn't be too high in June.  They realistically are the only team willing to trade early and Scott and Tong is more than a fair offer.  

The Orioles shouldn't overpay in June to eclipse the Mets.  They should sit back and wait for the situation to unfold.  Toronto has the best package to trade at the end of July but I don't know if they will make the deal.

It could come down to a soft deal for the Cubs or the O's.  My money is on the Mets, 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, pushing all-in for the outside shot at a playoff birth.  That would be an awesome trade.

I get the feeling that this trade is done.  That it's a done deal in June.  I'd bet that it is one of the five teams that I have outlined.  It's an exciting trade market.  I'm interested to see how the chips fall.

That's it for Game Day today.   It's late in the afternoon.  At first glance, I like the Yanks tonight.  I'm going to dig in and see if there are any good bets on the games this evening.  If there is, I'll have a pick up before post time.