Today's Pick: A "Two for the Road" Parlay
I'm going to play a parlay tonight, a two-teamer for (+203). I feel like both games are good bets and if we package them up our expected value climbs enough to make it worth the risk.
Game One: NYM (-140) ML @ WAS
I like the Mets tonight. They are on the road in Washington D.C., home of the Georgetown Hoyas. No Hoyas in this game but Cowboy Nolan McLean (2-2) gets the ball for New York. The rookie out of Oklahoma State has a 2.92 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 52.1 innings on the season. He has already established himself as the Mets' ace and I'd say his numbers support the designation. His 4.27 K/BB puts him amongst an elite group of starting pitchers across the league.
Foster Griffin (4-2) starts for Washington. Griffin, who returns from Nippon after spending three seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, had posted four consecutive quality starts before his outing against the Reds on May 14th. The Reds torched him. Griffin gave up nine earned and a pair of long balls in that game. The game was in the bandbox known as the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark, but I feel like Griffin's confidence could be shaken some. He gets a Mets' team that has some big hitters.
The teams played 12 innings yesterday, both bullpens are worked, but with McLean on the mound, it's New York who has the advantage in the pitching department. Winners of six out of their last seven games, I like the Mets to keep it rolling tonight and I like the price at (-140).
Game Two: BOS (-130) ML @ KCR
Ranger Suarez (2-2) starts for Boston. Suarez has a 17.1 scoreless innings streak entering tonight's game. The lefty has a 1.20 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP over his Last5 starts. He hasn't allowed an earned run away from Fenway and has pitched about as well as any starter in MLB to this point in the season.
Bailey Falter (0-1) gets the ball today for the Royals. Falter was inserted into the Royals' rotation as a result of the injuries to starters Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic. I wouldn't expect more than three innings out of Falter today. The Royals' bullpen is well-rested and they have a few options in long relief. Rookie Luinder Avila was called up and will likely get some innings today.
Red Sox have their own problems on offense but this is a team with some good hitters. With Trevor Story out of the way due to a sports hernia, the offense isn't as jammed up. They are still without Roman Anthony, third baseman Caleb Durbin is hitting just .165, outfielder Jarren Duran is hitting .181 but they do have a few bats in the heart of the lineup that can do damage. Wyler Abreu, Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela have all hit well this season and can slug the ball out of the park.
It's Suarez that has me betting the Red Sox. The starting pitching matchup is well in favor of Boston and the line on the game at (-130) doesn't really reflect that disparity. I'm betting on the Red Sox to get the win tonight.
---------------Tuesday, May 19th--------------------
Today's Pick: 2 Team parlay (+203)
-- NYM (-140) ML @ WAS
-- BOS (-130) ML @ KCR
Units in Play: 1.00 units
Amount Wagered: 1.00 units
Ticket Pays: 3.03 units
---------------------Cash Ticket-------------------------
It's a two-team bet. Have to win both games to get paid on the ticket but the parlay pays out nicely. I like the odds on both games and am pressing my luck for the plus money. A win puts us in a good spot heading into tomorrow's action. I like the bet. Let's roll with it.