Today's Pick: "Tuesday Tripler" Parlay (+435)

I dug into the numbers again instead of "winging it".  I've been digging in like a mole in a garden bed.  

I had eight or nine games on my radar before I started my research.  After digging into the data, I am down to a three-team parlay that pays out at (+425) and I like this pick today.  

Before we get to the pick, here is a brief synopsis of the methodology I used in making Today's Pick:

Rays (-115) ML - At first glance Shane Baz (1-5) with a 4.87 ERA is ripe to be picked on but Baz faced the O's last week and pitched well.  He only allowed two hits in that game over 6.0 innings.  Right off the bat I'm leaning out on this game.  A start like that wins a game.  I thought about flipping my pick and taking the Baltimore but Griffin Jax also threw a nice game last week in his start against the Orioles.  This game is a pass.

Pirates (-135) ML -  I liked this bet with Ashcraft on the mound for Pittsburgh agaisnst the rookie Jordan Wicks but I watched Wicks throw some on YouTube and I like him.  He is sitting 96 mph with the heater working the ball up, working the ball low in the zone and has a tight breaking ball that drops in low and away on righties.  It was enough to make me cautious about the game.  Im passing on the Pirates today.

Brewers (-190) ML - As much as I want to disqualify McGreevy as being ripe for a plucking, his splits are as solid as his pedigree. McGreevy is a former first-round pick.  He has pitched well on the road this season and he gets both lefties and righties out.  McGreevy has excellent command of a seven-pitch mix.  His strikeout volume isn't all that high but his game is inducing soft contact, limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard.  The Brewers are last in the league in home runs as a team.  It is a good matchup for McGreevy.  The entire Cardinals bullpen entires the game with two-days rest.  As much as I like Harrison and the Brewers offense, I am having a difficult time betting against McGreevy and the Cardinals tonight.  A Trevor MeGill blowup is looming in the eighth.

Mariners (-105) ML - I had liked Emerson Hancock tonight.  Luis Severino has pitched poorly at Sutter Health Park once again this season.  He tanks it if he gets out to a bad start.  The A's pulled him from the game.  Rookie Gage Jump is scheduled to start and that is a wild card.  I was picking against Severino in this game as much as I was betting on Hancock to go six strong.  With Severino off the card, Im passing on the M's tonight.  They have scored two or less runs in 9 of 23 games in May.  

Padres (-125) ML - I started digging in on this game and I pictured the right-handed Vasquez dropping a curveball low and inside on Schwarber and Schwarber going into that knee on the ground routine, pulling one into the right field bleachers and that was about all I needed to pass on this game.  I was betting against Aaron Nola more than anything and when I got around to thinking about, the Padres haven't hit all that well.  Betting against Nola isnt a bad idea if there is a good offense on the other side of the ball and the Padres haven't been swinging the bat all that well.   The Phillies shut them out yesterday.  Im passing on the Padres tonight.  

D'Backs (-105) ML - I don't know why I would even consider laying a bet down on "Arizona E-Rod", it's the D'Backs offense that has me looking at this game and the Giants poor team chemistry.  The Giants are a soft ballclub.  Eduardo Rodriguez has thrown the ball well this season.  Tyler Mahle has been getting wrecked very start out.  I think this is a good bet tonight.  Arizona's bullpen is well-rested and E-Rod hasn't been giving up the long ball this season but I can't shake the memory of some of E-Rod's finest moments of the '25 season.  He was real bad at times, so bad that I thought he was finished in MLB all together.  As much as I like this number and like betting agaisnt Mahle, Im going to pass on AZD tonight.

Three Games I Like Tonight:

CIN (-120) ML @ NYM

I looked at the Reds' lineup tomight and it is stacked with sluggers.  Rookie Blake Dunn has done a great job replacing TJ Friedl in the lead-off spot.  De La Cruz, Stewart, Steer, Suarez and Myers can all slug the ball from the right-hand side.  Mets lefty David Peterson (3-4) has his work cut out for him tonight.  It's phenom Chase Burns (6-1) for Cincinnati tonight.  Burns is red hot.  He has posted a 1.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over his Last5 starts. This pick is on the Reds offense and on Chase Burns and I like the number at (-120).  It's a 6:10 PM CDT start from Citi Field in Flushing Meadows, NY.

NYY (-190) ML @ KCR

Cam Schlittler (6-2) has pitched as well as any starter in MLB in the month of May.  The big righty has posted a 1.20 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over his Last5 starts.  His 1.77 BB/9 is encouraging.  Limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard is the best way to pitch long innings and I like Schlittler to get six innings in tonight at Kauffman Stadium. I'm betting on Schlittler snd the Yanks' offense in this game.  I like the fact that KC is running Bailey Falter (0-1) out for the start.  Falter isn't stretched out, has only thrown 7.1 innings this season and has amassed a 9.82 ERA.  He is liable to get bombed on by a Yankees' team that crushes left-handed pitching.  First pitch from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 6:40 PM CDT.  

MIN (-110) ML @ CHW

This game is the clincher tonight.  It's all on "Lightning" Joe Ryan (3-1) who has been throwing the ball as good as he ever has since returning from an injury scare in early May.  Ryan has posted a 1.87 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over his Last5 starts.  Sean Burke (2-3) hasn't made it out of the fourth inning in any of his Last3 starts.  His numbers don't compare to Ryan's in any regard.  Lefties have slugged Burke some this season.  Righties too.  I like the Twins' lineup tonight with Buxton leading off, Lee in the two-hole, Larnach in the three and Clemens batting cleanup.  The Twins' bullpen has been hot over the past two weeks and is working on a days' rest top to bottom.  The White Sox are starting rookie Rishu Nishida in right field and will be without relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Grant Taylor tonight.  Both have worked back-to-back games and are unlikely to be available out of the White Sox bullpen.  The White Sox host.  It's a 6:40 PM CDT first pitch at Rate Field on the Southside of Chicago.

That's my pick tonight, it's a three-team parlay that pays (+435).  I worked through a lot of data to narrow this down.  I feel like I got the best three pitchers on the board tonight and some good advantage in every game I selected.  I'd like to press the bet up but my risk managment has me limited to 1.0 Units in Play.  

--------------Tuesday, May 26th-----------------

Today's Pick: Three Team Parlay (+425)

-- CIN (-120) ML @ NYM
-- NYY (-190) ML @ KCR 
-- MIN (-120) ML @ CHW

Units in Play: 1.00 units

Amount Wagered: 1.00 units
Ticket Pays: 5.35 units

---------------------Cash Ticket----------------------

Let's get a win tonight.  I'm going to for a warm beer.  Back tonight with a Pick Result.  Stay Tuned.  

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