Today's Pick: "Payday" Two Team Parlay (+242)

I've got a line on a bet and it's a two-team parlay that pays out at (+242).  It is a risk but I like the picks and the parlay pays nicely.  It isn't so much a hail mary as it is a third and short.  If we get a pair of wins, it's first and ten.  If one of the games is a loss, we'll punt and play some defense the rest of the week.

Game One:  CLE (-120) ML @ DET

Tanner Bibee (0-6) hasn't won a game all season for the Guardians but he hasn't pitched all that bad over his Last5.  Three quality starts and a 3.63 ERA in 27.2 innings.  That sort of effort wins games.  He hasn't pitched well away from Cleveland, and this is a big game on the road, but Bibee, as a right-handed pitcher, has been effective against left-handed hitting over the course of his career.  It is a trait that plays well against a Tigers' lineup that is dangerous from the left-hand side.  

The Tigers haven't announced a starter but it's likely to be Nippon return Drew Anderson.  Anderson has pitched serviceably this season, mostly out of the bullpen.  In 27.0 innings, the righty has pitched to a 4.67 ERA, it's not a great mark, but his 3.71 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is a run better and says that he has pitched better than his ERA suggests.  

It isn't so much that Bibee is a pitcher to bet on or that Anderson is a pitcher to bet against in this game.  

I like Cleveland tonight because they are a hot team that is playing good baseball.  The Guardians have been a better team offensively and defensively this season and despite throwing five relievers in yesterday's win, they have the better bullpen tonight.  I like the Guardians to win this game tonight and I like the price at (-120).

Game Two:  KCR (-115) ML vs. BOS

Boston won the first two games of the series and sends rookie Connelly Early (3-2) to the hill tonight to start Game Three of a three-game series.  Early has pitched well this season and flashes top of the rotation stuff.  He has been tough on righties but lefties have slugged him some this season.

The Royals have some lefty sluggers.  Jac Caglionone, Vinnie Pasquantino and catcher Carter Jensen can all poke the ball out of the yard.  Kyle Isbel has been one of the teams' best hitters this season.  He is mashing right-handed hitting and does his best work at Kauffman Stadium.  Isbel is an unheralded player, known for his defense, but is a difference maker tonight against the righty Early.

Michael Wacha (4-2) starts for KC.  Wacha is in his age-35 season and is pitching as good as he ever has.  He is a veteran of 14 MLB seasons and has a career 3.85 ERA.  That is pretty good.  This season, he has posted a 2.83 ERA in 57.1 innings.  Wacha can pitch, does his best work at Kauffman Stadium and he is extremely tough on left-handed hitters.  That shuts down Boston's power to some degree and I think that is an edge that plays out tonight.  

Wacha matches up better tonight and is likely to get through six innings.  It will take a special performance from Connelly Early to pitch with the KC ace tonight.  KC's bullpen is in better shape than Boston's as far as rest goes.  Boston is without Whitlock and Slaten.  Advantage Kansas City.

I like KC to win tonight and I like the price at (-115).

The two-team parlay pays (+242).  I'm betting both games and like the picks.  Let's get a win tonight.

---------------Wednesday, May 20th--------------------

Today's Pick: Two-Team Parlay (+242) 

--  CLE (-120) ML @ DET
--  KCR (-115) ML vs. BOS

Units in Play: 1.00 units

Amount Wagered: 1.00 units
Ticket Pays: 3.42 units

---------------------Cash Ticket-------------------------

Popular posts from this blog

Today's Pick: CIN (-165) over MIA

The Reds and the Marlins conclude a four game series at The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, OH, it's a 4:10 CDT first pitch.  The Marlins took the first two games of the series but the Reds battled back in game three, winning 7-2 on another quality start from lefty Andrew Abbott.   It's lefty Nick Lodolo starting for the Reds this afternoon.  Lodolo has been prone to giving up the long ball and leads the league in hit batsman.  Oddly, he doesn't walk that many hitters.  Strikeouts are his game, he has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning this season.  It's Lodolo's last start before the All Star break, he'll be charged up and should let it rip today.   Cal Quantrill starts for Miami.  I like Cal Quantrill.  He has pitched well this season and should be under consideration for a trade at the end of July.  Miami's management has been closely watching his pitch count and does everything in their power to keep him from get...
Read more

Today's Pick: A 2 Team Parlay

I have 1.56 units in play after yesterday's quasi-disappointment.   I'm going to rack a unit, and play a two team parlay tonight.  I've been stuck on 32 units banked for two weeks now.   I can't stand the number 32.  It has everything to do with Magic Johnson.  I don't like magic and I don't like Johnson.   Anyhow, now that we have 33 units in the bank, I feel better. Jose Canseco wore number 33.  Still one of my favorite players of all time.   No analysis today, I'm just making a pick.  My season for the most part is over.  I have 0.56 units in play, 4.0 units in my account, and 33 units in the bank.   The pick is a parlay on the Astros (-350) ML / Blue Jays (-175) ML for a (+105) payout. I like the pick.  Im happy with the plus money.  Have to win them both to cash a ticket but I like the play.   Today's Pick:  PAR:  TOR (-180) ML / HOU (-350) ML over Units in Play:  0.56...
Read more

Wednesday, August 6th: No Pick Today

No pick today, there isn't much on the board that I liked.  I didn't dig into any games but the Giants and the Pirates early this morning.  I liked the Giants but they don't hit left handed pitching all that well and Pirates had a well rested bullpen.  The Giants won that game 4-2.   I had thought about putting on my three dogs play with the Rangers, Reds and the Royals.  The Reds are down 6-0.  That would have been a loser.   There are some games later this afternoon and some late games too but I am going to take a pass on the action today and see if I can find a good spot tomorrow.   I'm sitting at 5.36 units in play and have a four game Pickstreak on the line.  We'll look to make it five in a row tomorrow.  
Read more