NL Wild Card Picks

I posted my picks to win each division earlier this week.  Six more teams will compete in the post season as wild card entrants, three teams from each league.

It's difficult to nail all six wild cards this early in the season.  A team can rise from the depths and make the playoffs.  The Royals finished last in the AL Central a couple years ago and made a playoff run the following season.  A bad team can turn it around in short order.  Injuries can take a team from contender to sellers at the trade deadline.  

In the NL, the Washington Nationals and the Colorado Rockies are for the most part expected to finish at the bottom of the league standings.  The Cardinals are in a rebuild and the Diamondbacks have holes in their lineup and likely won't score enough runs to overcome a lack of depth in their rotation and a bullpen that looks to be one of the league's weakest.  Miami surprised last season and is out to a fast start but they don't have the pitching behind ace Sandy Alcantara.  

That leaves seven teams competing for three wild cards.  Surprisingly, the Pirates made the cut but their offense isn't going to be enough this year.  In fact, Miami is probably a better team but with Miami punting before the season began, trading two starters from their rotation, I give the Pirates some credit for making some moves to improve their team with a focus on winning this season.  

I don't like Atlanta much either but the offense has some hitters, the bullpen is stacked, and despite a plethora of injuries to their rotation, the starting pitching is still in good shape.  The Braves are a contender this season but too much injury risk in the rotation and too much turmoil in the clubhouse has this team falling out of contention by the trade deadline. 

The Giants added batting champ Luis Arraez and Gold Glove centerfielder Ryan Bader to set the table and signed a pair of nice starters in Tyler Mahle and Adrian Hauser giving them a potent offense and a solid rotation but this team hasn't played well early and the bullpen could struggle this season.  

I think the Cubs fall short.  I'm not nearly as high on Pete Crow Armstrong as Cubs' fanatics are.  They lost Cade Horton to a UCL injury and he was expected to pitch at the top of the rotation this season.  They can't count on Jason Steele, who hasn't pitched since his UCL at the beginning of the '25 season and Matthew Boyd, who has a long history of injuries, has already spent time on the IR.  The  Cubs have a good team, signed three or four quality relievers this off season but might struggle some at the plate and will be weak at the back of the rotation if Steele doesn't return strong.  

My Picks For the NL Wild Card:

1.  Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies will have one of the best rotations in baseball when Zack Wheeler returns from a thoracic outlet procedure this summer.  Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola and rookie Andrew Painter is a strong group.  The bullpen lacks depth but if they remain healthy they have some good arms at the top.  The offense is getting long in the tooth but they should be able to score runs with Schwarber, Harper, Kemp and Garcia cranking homers.  Their OF group isn't deep, they don't have a great bench but I think their pitching is good enough to win this season.

2.  San Diego Padres.  The Padres have a stacked lineup adding Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos and Sung Moon Song this off-season.  Castellanos and Song are on the bench.  They don't have a true lead-off hitter, they can't replace Luis Arraez, but Tatis Jr. and Machado are two of the league's best.  Jackson Merrill, Ramon Laureano and Jake Cronenworth add good power to the lineup as does 1B Gavin Sheets.  They can hit dingers.  Their bullpen is one of the best in MLB.  Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Jason Adam are a formidable trio at the top and rookie Bradgley Rodriguez can rack up strikeouts.  Morgan, Estrada, Peralta and Matsui were all with the team last season.  It is a group that has melded well and that counts for a lot in the bullpen.  The starting pitching could surprise.  A healthy Michael King has pitched like an ace in his limited time as a starter and Nick Pivetta had the best season of his career in '25.  Randy Vasquez is a better pitcher than the numbers give him credit for and Griffin Canning was in the midst of a career breakout last season before suffering an ACL injury.  They don't have quality depth but if they can remain strong at the top they will be competitive this season and I have them making the playoffs.

3.  Cincinnati Reds.  It still smells like baked beans in Cincinnati from what I'm told but the Reds could be roses this season.  They have good pitching.  Hunter Greene had bone chips removed from his elbow but should return this summer and when he is strong, he is one of the game's best.  I'd say the same about Nick Lodolo.  Lodolo doesn't get a lot of shine but he is a competitive pitcher with an arsenal that few can match.  Andrew Abbott is a big lefty who was the team's best starter into August last season and Brady Singer is a solid four.  Singer was pitching like a top of the rotation starter at the end of last season.  Chase Burns has looked sharp, he can light it up as good as any starter in MLB.  Rhett Lowder is another first-rounder that is up this season and pitching well early.  They have depth behind their front six and the bullpen will be strong once again returning a few high leverage flamethrowers with all-star closer Emilio Pagan locking it down in the ninth.  Matt McLain was the MVP of the spring and rookie Sal Stewart has been flat out raking.  He is a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year in the NL.  The Reds have a good offense but their pitching could potentially be the best in MLB.  I like the Reds to challenge the Brewers for the NL Central and at the very least make the playoffs as a wild card.

In the NL, I have the Dodgers, Brewers and Mets winning their respective divisions and the Phillies, Padres and Reds making the playoffs.  Only the Reds differ from the '25 playoff contenders replacing the Cubs who lost in the Wild Card round last season.  

No bets on futures for me.  I only make futures after the all-star break unless there is an early long shot (Miami) that stands out to me.  

This article is getting long.  That's it for today.  I'll try and post my AL picks and my World Series winner in the coming days.  I also need to post the Postgame Report from my first practice pick (BAL winner) so look out for that too.