AL Wild Card Picks
In the AL, of the twelve teams that remain (I picked the Yankees, Guardians and Mariners to win their respective divisions), the White Sox and the Twins are the only teams that can be easily eliminated without much thought of contending. The White Sox made a number of splashy moves this off season, signing Munetaka Murakami from the Nippon league and acquiring Luis Angel Acuna in a trade with the Mets but they are still at the beginning of their latest rebuild and their pitching prospects aren't ready. The Twins face similar issues. They lack depth in the rotation, have a number of holes in the lineup and are in the midst of a total overhaul of their bullpen after trading everybody with a pulse last season. The Twins will likely be sellers this season too with bigtime trade chips in Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers. Two teams staunchly in rebuild mode. The Twins and the White Sox are likely to finish at the bottom of the AL.
The A's, Angels and the Rays are also unlikely to emerge this season but each team has some potential to surprise. The A's have one of the best offenses in MLB. It is their pitching that will likely hold them back. The rotation is fairly set albeit wobbly. Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs can both pitch at the top and veteran Aaron Civale can give them good innings. Jacob Lopez flashed his potential last season and has the makeup to be an ace but that's about all they have. They don't have any quality depth. They haven't established their five and the bullpen is a mixed bag with more potential busts than booms. What they do have is a number of prospects that could potentially factor in this season. If they get some strong contributions from the rookies, they could make a run late in the season but in no way can you pick the A's as a favorite to make the playoffs in April.
The Angels didn't do much this off season. Their rotation is as weak as the A's and their offense isn't nearly as good but this is a team that has played together for a few years now. When the Angels get good pitching, they seem to know how to win games. They lack depth both on the major league roster and on the farm and will need to stay healthy to remain competitive. They also need outlier performances from a slew of fringe players to keep up with the big spenders. They don't have many prospects to trade should they somehow be in the mix early and even if they are playing well, they can't afford to part with the few well-regarded playerd in their minor league system. They likely won't add much at the trade deadline and will have a difficult time keeping pace down the stretch.
Tampa traded away starter Shane Baz before the season for a haul of prospects. Also on the move was OF Josh Lowe and 2B Brandon Lowe. All indications are they rebuilding the team this season. Entering the fold are a number of rookies. Brandon Williamson, acquired from the Mariners in the off season, opens at second base. Home-grown prospect Carson Williams is likely to get the majority of work at shortstop and Jacob Melton, acquired from Houston, is the plan in centerfield. They still have Yandy Diaz at the top of the lineup and Junior Caminero mashing homers but they'll likely be one of the league's least productive offenses. The pitching could pull together but a mid season trade of Drew Rasmussen is likely with the veteran entering free agency after the conclusion of the '26 season. Yandy Diaz might be the best leadoff hitter in MLB and he has a very affordable contract with a year of team control in '27. Diaz, Rasmussen and a healthy Shane McClanahan can bring in a stack of prospects and Tampa isn't shy about making big trades. I'd expect a trade or two before the season is over and the Rays to finish in last place in a competitive AL East.
That leaves seven teams vying for three wild cards, a similar situation to the NL. The AL is somewhat more competitive. That is the sense that I get as I make my Wild Card picks. Kansas City has a good team and entered the season with a strong rotation but they have significant injury risk at the top. Both Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans missed significant time last season due to injury. Ragans has already been pulled from a start this season. If that duo is strong the Royals could put together some wins. I didn't like the additions to the outfield this off season. Lane Thomas, Isaac Collins, Starlin Marte -- they fail to strike me as impact players. Kameron Misner was the best addition to the outfield and he isn't being prioritize to begin the season. Caglianone hasn't been the answer nor has Jonathan India. Rookie catcher Carter Jensen could add a spark but the offense is lacking. I think the Royals, with injury-prone arms at the top of the rotation, a mediocre bullpen and an offense that doesn't win games, ultimately finish third in the AL Central and miss the playoffs this season.
Houston's starting pitching entering the season is a shaky group. Cristian Javier is a year removed from a TJ and while he pitched some good games last season, he has never truly established himself above a solid three. Tatsuyami Imai was signed to be their two behind Hunter Brown. He had great numbers in Nippon and could live up to his billing as a potential ace but he hasn't pitched in the big leagues and until he establishes himself, he can't be considered a sure-fire top of the rotation arm. Lance McCuller's has flashed potential to pitch at the top his entire career but injuries have derailed him time and time again and when he has been healthy, he hasn't been consistent. I have a difficult time counting the Astros out. They have a potent offense but the bullpen has regressed some since the all-star break in '25 and the starting pitching is likely to be mediocre. The Astros pitching has them out of the playoffs this season.
The Rangers have one of the best front four in baseball when they are all healthy but Jacob DeGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are both in their late thirties. They have Kumar Rocker in the five. Rocker was a first round pick a few years back and has potential to be a solid 4/5 but he has yet to pitch consistently in the big league rotation. Jacob Latz and Jordan Montgomery offer quality depth but taking Latz out of the bullpen will weaken an already shaky group and Montgomery hasn't thrown a pitch since his Tommy John at the beginning of the '25 season. The offense has more than a few holes, lacks power and speed and could finish at the bottom of the league in runs scored. The Rangers rotation could be great but the bullpen and the offense are likely to fall short and the age on DeGrom and Eovaldi could show up late in the season. Without one or both, this team isn't a playoff contender.
Toronto went to game seven of the World Series in '25 and did everything but sign Bo Bichette this off season. They instead chose to spend big on starter Dylan Cease and enter the '26 season with a very formidable front three in Gausman, Cease and Bieber. Bieber begins the season on the injured list as does rookie phenom Trey Yessavage. Yessavage will be the four when he returns from the IR. Both are expected back sooner than later. Cody Ponce was signed from Nippon to be the Blue Jays five but he tore his ACL. Jose Berrios is already on the IR and the Blue Jays find themselves with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin at the back of the rotation. The former Nationals duo is now a pair of Blue Birds. Both can give the Jays innings but both are getting up there in age. Toronto has a few prospects that could emerge but they don't look to be all that strong behind their front three. The bullpen is stacked and will be a strength and the offense will score runs with Vlad Guerrero, George Soringer, Dalton Varsho and Addison Barger leading the way but they aren't as strong of a team as they were last season. Bo Bichette was a key cog on that World Series team and this season, the Blue Jays offense will struggle without him setting the table. Blue Jays spent a lot but miss Bo and miss the playoffs.
My Picks For the AL Wild Cards:
1. Detroit Tigers. Detroit is the easy pick here. They have a stacked lineup, a stacked rotation and a stacked bullpen. They have two or three potential Rookie of the Year candidates, Kevin McGonigle broke camp and is likely to be the team's starting shortstop for the remainder of the season. Max Clark has been their top prospect for a couple years now and he is raking in AAA. Id expect Clark up sooner than later. Gleybar Torres was resigned and is a real good player. Dirk Dingler is one of the most underrated catchers in the game, he is a potential all-star at the position. With Clark, with good health, they don't have any holes in the lineup. Skubal, Valdez and Mize are about as good as it gets at the top of the rotation. Hall of Famer Justin Verlander pitched to a sub 4.00 ERA last season, he still has some gas in the tank. They have some depth too with Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson Long and Jackson and Jackson Jobe returning sometime this summer from Tommy John surgery. The Tigers have potential to win the AL pennant. I took the Guardians over the Tigers to win the division, I probably should have picked the Tigers. They are the best team. They should be a lock to make the playoffs this season.
2. Baltimore Orioles. If home runs wins games in this league, Baltimore should be a lock to make the playoffs. They have big power in their lineup. Free agent acquisition Pete Alonso is a 50 HR player and Taylor Ward, acquired in a trade with the Angels, hit 37 HR last season. The O's added some big bop to what was a pretty good offense last season. Rookie Jeremiah Jackson has been a big addition replacing Cedric Mullins in the OF. The O's can hit and will score runs. They have a good bench too. Starting pitching was the issue last season. They added a pair of veteran starting pitchers in Chris Bassitt and Shane Baz. Neither pitch at the top but both are good options behind Rogers and Bradish. They have good depth too with Wells, Kremer, Povich and Young all options at the five. Zach Eflin is out for the season, it was a big loss, but the Orioles have a strong bullpen. This team needs Rogers and Bradish to pitch well this season. They need Bassitt and Baz to give them good innings in the 3/4. The bullpen should be real good. If the starting pitching stays healthy, the O's make the playoffs this season.
3. Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox snuck into the playoffs last season as a Wild Card and this off season, they did everthing in their power to improve the roster. Whether or not they succeeded will be determined in October. Anything less than a olayoff birth is a failure and it is that mindset that will have the Red Sox looking to remain competitive at all costs this season. The rotation is stacked and they have good depth with two of the best pitching prospects in baseball both ready for a long look this off season. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle give the Red Sox a pair of aces up their proverbial sleeves. They traded for Sonny Gray and signed Ranger Suarez, two top of the rotation starters to slot in behind ace Garrett Crochet. Brayan Bello as the four is solid and off season acquisition Johan Oviedo looked good down the stretch last season in Pittsburgh. Depth in the rotation is a strength and so is the bullpen, returning Aroldis Chapman, Greg Weissert, Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock. They lost Bregman in free agency but added Willson Contreras in a trade with the Cardinals. If the Red Sox can get their lineup together, they have the hitters to score runs and have a few potential gold gloves in the field. I feel like the Red Sox are going to turn it on this summer and be in good position to make the playoffs come October.
Those are my picks. It is a brief synopsis of all 30 teams and their off season acquisitions. There were many trades and free agent signings this off season, it is difficult to keep track of it all but thanks to MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs, I managed to keep studied all winter. I put in my work everyday. It isn't all that easy to stay on top of the teams and the players and my picks, while in line with the odds makers to some degree, are based on my own interpretation of each team, their strengths and their weaknesses as compared to the competition in each league.
I didn't make any futures bets. This is mostly an exercise in preparation for the regular season. I'll start making picks at the end of April or in early May.
I have a few more posts to put up before I start my season. I'll have my World Series winner later this week and my picks for Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP. I also want to take a run at the nightly recap and see if it isnpossible to put together a well written, informative nightly post without too much stress and strain. I'll have to write late at night and I don't like being up late so its sort of a challenege for me.
That's it for this post. My division winners and playoff picks are in. Stay tuned.