Today's Pick: MIL (-130) over ATL

The Brewers (68-44) enter today's game against the Braves (47-64) with the best record in baseball.  They've won four in a row and seven of their last eight.  It's good pitching, good defense and they are hitting the ball well.  As a team, Milwaukee has hit .290/.360/.453 over the past month.  They have posted a slash of .342/.404/.556 over the past week.  

It's the Atlanta Braves vs. the Milwaukee Brewers in a 6:15 PM CDT start at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.  

Freddy Peralta starts for Milwaukee.  Peralta had a rough outing against the Cubs at the end of July.  He gave up five earned in that start but the righty has been as reliable as any starter in MLB this season.  On the season, opponents have hit just .207/.290/.346 against Peralta.  Compare those numbers to the Brewers' slash over the past month.  Peralta on the mound is a big edge for Milwaukee.  I fully expect Freddy to be prepared and to bring his A game into this evening's contest with the Braves.

Joey Wentz starts for Atlanta.  The 6'5 lefty was drafted out of Shawnee Mission High School back in 2016 and has for the most part spent his entire professional career in the minor leagues.  He pitched 105 innings in the Tigers' rotation in '23 but primarily worked in relief for the Tigers in the '24 and '25 seasons.  He took a brief detour to Minnesota before being picked up by the Braves in July.  With the injuries Atlanta has had in the rotation, it's been Wentz once again getting the ball as a starter.  He has taken advantage of the opportunity.  The big lefty has posted a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings as a starter with the Braves.  While it is only three starts, it's gone pretty good for Joey Dubya.  But he doesn't have a plus pitch.  He sits 94 mph with his four seamer and changes speeds with an 86 mph cutter.  He'll throw a curveball to righties but is a two pitch pitcher against lefties.  Joey Wentz is likely a bullpen pitcher and is getting starts only because the Braves have four starters on the IR.

The Brewers can hit left handed pitching.  They don't have a significant split when it comes to facing a lefty.  If anything, it helps them at the bottom of the lineup.  Both third baseman Caleb Durbin and shortstop Joey Ortiz hit far better against lefties.  

Atlanta's bullpen is well rested.  They have Pierce Johnson on a days rest and he can give them bulk innings.  Lefty Dylan Lee is also available for Atlanta.  Outside of closer Rasiel Iglesias, Johnson and Lee have been the two best arms in Atlanta's bullpen this season.  

The Braves will be without both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.  They are struggling offensively as team and it's my belief that Acuna Jr. has been bad for the club house all season.  Manager Brian Snitker is in the hot seat with the Braves likely to make some big changes in the off season.

I like Milwaukee today.  They are playing good and have a lot of momentum brewing.  I think the Brew Crew can score some runs off Wentz and with Peralta on the mound, they could build a big lead heading into the later innings.  Their bullpen is well rested with their top four of Koenig, Mears, Uribe and MeGill all available to pitch tonight.  

With 3.9 units in play, I'm going to risk 1.9 units on Milwaukee tonight.  The price is nice at (-130).  It's a decent risk for a nice payout.  A win will make it four cashes in a row.  

Today's Pick:   MIL (-130) over ATL
Units in Play:  3.9 units
Units Wagered:  1.9 units
Ticket Pays:  3.36 units (+1.46 units)
Current Streak:  3
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  111.02 units
Current Bank Balance:  8 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  28 units
Profit / Loss (season):  -4.0 units
Overall Record:  47-27

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