NL Playoff Picture
The NL playoff race could be down to seven teams, could be down to eight teams, could be down to ten teams, depending on how you look at it. Realistically, it's ten teams with the Marlins, Braves, Rockies, Nationals and Pirates out of contention. The trade deadline is July 31st. A lot can change in the next two weeks. I've put together my thoughts on this year's first half and what we can expect from all 15 NL teams at the trade deadline and into October as well as my picks to win each division and who I think will make the playoffs as wild card entries.
Division Winners
The Dodgers have the best record in the NL and have a comfortable lead in the NL West. You could say that they have yet to be at full strength all season. Their rotation has been without Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Ohtani has made a handful of starts but hasn't pitched more than three innings in any of his outings. When all three are back and healthy, they will have one of the best rotations in baseball. The bullpen has also dealt with injuries. They have some good arms in Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Kirby Yates. Jack Dreyer and Anthony Banda have also provided some good innings but Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips are potentially their three best and all three have been out all season. The offense has carried Los Angeles all year and should get Max Muncy back at some point before October. They’ll look to replace Michael Conforto at the trade deadline adding another dependable bat to what has been the most consistent offense in MLB. If the bullpen arms on the IR can’t make it back, expect the Dodgers to add a reliever before the end of July. The Dodgers have money, prospects and players to trade and will be tough to beat when they get settled in. They’re my pick to win the NL crown and a first round bye in the playoffs.
The Brewers might be the hottest team in the National League. They have made some big trades already this season, adding starter Quinn Priester and first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Brandon Woodruff returned to the rotation and has pitched like an ace giving them three at the top if you include rookie Jacob Misiorowski who has been outstanding since being called up at the end of June. I’d also consider Jose Quintana a front line starter, he has pitched excellent all season. I like their bullpen too. DL Hall and Aaron Ashby were both rotation options that have had success as relievers behind a quality group of high leverage arms in Koenig, Mears, Uribe and MeGill. The Brewers look set in the pitching department. Offensively they have manufactured runs one through nine. Rookies Issac Collins and Caleb Durbin have emerged and their young core of Chourio, Contreras, Frelick and Turang have had productive seasons. Veterans Christian Yellich and Rhys Hoskins have hit well too. They could add a shortstop but they seem to like Joey Ortiz despite his subpar hit tool. I like the Brewers to stand pat at the deadline and with the team they have in place I think they can outpace the Cubs to win the NL Central.
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East. I’ve had them second behind LAD all season in my MLB power rankings. Zach Wheeler, Chris Sanchez and Ranger Suarez comprise what I would consider to be one of the best front lines in baseball. The back end of the rotation has been a concern but Jesus Luzardo has been an admirable four and they could get Aaron Nola back at some point before the playoffs. I don’t think the Phillies need a starter to continue their winning ways. They are rumored to be seeking bullpen help. An impact reliever would be a nice addition. The return of Jose Alvarado will also solidify a bullpen that has been shorthanded most of the season. They have a tough lineup to navigate with Trey Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at the top. Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto are both sluggers who can put it over the fence as is rookie Otto Kemp who has seen some playing time in the outfield and at third base. But Kemp isn’t a sure thing and Max Keplar hasn’t hit all season. If the Phillies have a glaring need it's a reliable bat in left field. Eugenio Suarez is a player that would fit well with Philadelphia but he doesn’t plug the hole in the outfield and incumbent third baseman Alec Bohm has hit well this season. I’d expect the Phillies to be seeking an outfielder and a relief pitcher at the trade deadline. They could trade for an ace in the rotation in a move that would have them all in to win in ‘25. I like the Phillies to make a big trade and to win the NL East.
Wild Card Picks
The Cubs are in first place in the NL Central. They aren’t the lovable losers anymore but could grab back their moniker if they don’t add some pitching at the trade deadline. Chicago lost ace Justin Steele early in the season. Off-season acquisition Matthew Boyd has filled in and has been their best starter, somewhat unexpectedly. Shota Imanaga returned to the roster in July and has pitched well giving the Cubs a fairly strong one two punch at the top of the rotation. I like Jameson Taillon. The big lefty is a good pitcher and has been fairly durable despite having two Tommy John’s under his belt. But behind Taillon it gets a little dicey. Colin Rea has been a good four all season and rookie Cade Horton is a top prospect with a good arsenal but both leave Chicago pondering their options at the tradeline. The Cubs have a good bullpen but have given up some leads late. They have rotated closers a few times this season from Ryan Pressly to Porter Hodge to Daniel Palencia. It looks like they’ve settled on Palencia in the ninth. A trio of veterans, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Flexen have added quality depth to a bullpen that has at times looked shaky. The offense is one of the best in baseball. Catcher Miguel Amaya should provide a spark in the second half. They could add a third baseman but I’d say a front line starter is their most pressing need. I expect the Cubs to be all in with Kyle Tucker testing free agency this winter. They have some prospects to trade and can add the pieces they need to win it all.
The wheels almost came off the Mets jumbo jet at the end of June but New York pulled it together and are within a 0.5 game of the Phillies in the NL East standings. The Mets pitching isn’t as good as the Phillies or the Dodgers but it is still a pretty good staff. Kodai Sengai has been an ace. David Peterson is a good lefty but has had his struggles. I’d say he is a good three. Clay Holmes has a great knucklecurve ball and has had success in the rotation but hasn’t thrown a full season of innings as a starter. He’s also a three. They have a pair of high profile starters returning after the deadline that could potentially plug in at the top of their rotation. Sean Manaea is a hard throwing lefty that could be a difference maker down the stretch and righty Frankie Montas has pitched well since returning to the team in late June. The Mets bullpen doesn’t have much depth and has been setback by a number of injuries. They will definitely need to add an arm or two at the trade deadline to bolster their relief pitching behind a good set of righties in Hector Brazoban, Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek and Edwin Diaz. They need a left-handed relief pitcher, possibly a pair of lefties to remain competitive. They could also use a bat or two. Holes in centerfield, at the catcher position and at the DH have plagued the Mets all season. Mark Vientos will return at some point and Francisco Alvarez is still on the roster albeit in AAA. Both could potentially add some offense but I’d expect the Mets to be buyers across the board. They’ll be driving up the market on relief pitchers and they will be in the bidding for any big hitters that are being delt as they seek a return to the NLCS. A starter would be a surprise but isn’t out of the question knowing the Mets.
The Padres have had a good season without a great rotation and without scoring runs. They are 25th in MLB in runs scored entering the second half. They have been without ace Michael King and veteran starter Yu Dharvish for most of the season. The duo of Randy Vasquez and Stephen Kolek has kept them in games but it’s been the bullpen that has helped the Padres stay afloat and in contention this season. They have gotten some great pitching from relievers Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and Robert Suarez. Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta and David Morgan have emerged as quality depth options in the Padres’ bullpen. I look at their lineup with Tatis Jr., Arreaz, and Machado at the top and it’s as good as any in baseball. Gavin Sheets is having a career year and centerfielder Jackson Merrill has hit well when healthy. They have a Xander Bogaerts problem that isn’t going away anytime soon and they need a catcher that can hit. The Padres have also been soft in left field. Sheets has taken some starts in left but that just shifts the hole to the DH. They need a bat or two, preferably an outfielder but a slugging DH would be a good fit. Replacing the tandem of Martin Maldonado and Edwin Diaz with a catcher that can hit the ball would be a significant upgrade. Nick Pivetta has pitched like an ace and has won games for the Padres this season. Cease can be a big game pitcher. Randy Bergert has emerged as a quality fifth starter in a rotation that should be set with both Michael King and Yu Dharvish expected to return in the second half. I expect the Padres to make as many trades as needed to remain in contention through September and I like the Frairs to make the playoffs with a wild card birth.
The Contender
The Reds have played well this season primarily on the strength of their pitching staff. They have a few legitimate aces. Hunter Greene is expected to return to the rotation at some point in the second half and lefties Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have won games for Cincinnati. Rookie Chase Burns has flashed front line potential and will be a difference maker down the stretch. They have pitching to trade at the deadline too. With rookie Rhett Lowder potentially joining the rotation late in the season, the Reds could trade either Brady Singer or Nick Martinez and still have an outstanding rotation for the stretch run. But the Reds don’t need much. Their bullpen has been good and has some depth too it. They have an elite closer in Emilio Pagan, and Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter and Tony Santillan have been solid in setup roles. The offense is pretty good too. Rookie Noelve Marte has emerged as a legitmate slugger and they have gotten good production out of catchers Jose Trevino and Tyler Stephenson. Elly De La Cruz is one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. They have a team that can pitch and score runs without any significant holes in their lineup. They have good depth in the rotation, in the bullpen and in the field. It’s a young team but if they start clicking they could roll into October with a playoff birth.
Buyers or Sellers?
The Diamondbacks have played well this season and are seemingly in contention despite a basket of significant injuries that have decimated their pitching staff. They lost ace Corbin Burnes and their three best bullpen arms, all to UCL injuries. They still have five good arms in the rotation, they can hit with any team in baseball but the bullpen is depleated and they may have too many trade chips to pass on what should be a strong seller’s market. Starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are both free agents in '26. Both are in demand by teams in contention and could bring good propsect packages in trades. First baseman Josh Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suarez are also on expiring contracts and are two of the most coveted bats in all of MLB. I'd expect them to trade all four players. It will be difficult for the Diamondback’s to compete if they make the trades. If they don’t, I expect them to fall short with a bullpen that will be hard pressed to hold leads down the stretch. If they find a way to keep the team together and add a bullpen arm or two, don’t count them out, but the opportunity cost is steep.
I picked the Cardinals at the beginning of the season to win the NL Central. I thought they had the most complete team in the division but Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II have fallen flat and future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado hasn’t hit well all season. Their offense at the top has been real good but the deficiencies at the bottom of the order have been glaring. They play great defense, they have a good bullpen and they have five starters who can keep them in games but they don’t win many games with their starting pitching. They need to score runs and if they don’t plug the holes in the outfield and at the catcher position, they will have a difficult time offensively in the second half. Perhaps JJ Weatherholt gets a call up. He could potentially make the transition to the outfield. They would also do well to add a DH at the deadline. Marcell Ozuna would be a good fit and would allow them to start Herrera at catcher. I could see the Cardinals punting too. They have some nice trade chips in Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero. If they do sell, Nolan Arenado could be on the move opening up a spot in the infield for their top prospect, the forementioned JJ Weatherholt. This Cardinal team is in a similar spot to the Diamonbacks. They have trade chips that could return nice prospects. They are likely sellers but they could trade for a bat and a starter and make a run at a wild card birth.
Could Surprise
The Giants made the biggest trade of the season thus far, acquiring Rafael Devers from the Red Sox in late May. It’s a big bat in the lineup if they can keep him happy and the Giants need him to hit. Off-season signee Willie Adames hasn’t produced and they have had a hole at second base all season. Their rotation looks to have solidified, settling on Hayden Birdsong and Landon Roupp behind ace Logan Webb, Robby Ray and Justin Verlander. They have some nice arms in the bullpen too. Lefty Randy Rodriguez has been as good as any reliever in baseball and Camilo Doval is an elite closer. The offense is the biggest concern in San Fran. Justin Verlander’s inability to win games also has to be a concern for a Giant’s team that doesn’t have much depth in the rotation. If they can get the bats going and Verlander can figure out how to pitch without the heater, they will be competitive down the stretch and could surprise in October.
Out of Contention
The Braves have also been decimated by injuries, primarily to their rotation. Reynaldo Lopez has been out all season with a shoulder injury. Chris Sale has a rib injury. AJ Smith Shawver had a TJ and Spencer Schwellenbach was put on the IR in July, he could also be a candidate for Tommy John surgery. It doesn't look to be in the cards this season for the Braves. If they do make some trades at the deadline, could they move former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.? That would be an epic deadline trade with a Juan Sotoesque return of prospects. Marcell Ozuna has an expiring contract. He hasn’t hit this season but he was in the MVP discussion in ‘24 as a DH and could be a cheap addition to a team in need of an impact bat. Drake Baldwin has supplanted Sean Murphy as Atlanta’s starting catcher and he has hit well this season. Murphy too could be on the move.
The Marlins have been competitive all season but have a losing record and too much ground to cover to get back into contention. They have hit the ball well with a lineup that wasn't expected to score a lot of runs getting outsized production from rookie catcher Agustn Ramirez and all-star left fielder Kyle Stowers. They have some good players in Xavier Edwards, Conner Norby and Otto Lopez. The rotation hasn't been great. Injuries have wiped out both Max Meyer and Ryan Weathers. Sandy Alcantara hasn't pitched up to his Cy Young caliber since returning from Tommy John surgery and Edward Cabrera has an arsenal of pitches as good as any ace in baseball but he has been inconsistent. Rookie Eury Perez returned from TJ and has flashed front of the rotation stuff but is on an innings limit and will be monitored closely through October as the franchise’s most prized young pitcher. The bullpen has a few good arms too but they don’t have the depth to support a rotation that is also thin on arms. They aren't built to win this year and they have been rumored to be sellers with Sandy Alcantara as their primary trade chip. I think they should keep Alcantara. They'd have one of the best rotations in baseball in '26 with Alcantara in the fold. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins approach the July trade deadline. Jesus Sanchez could be on the move and they could move a bullpen arm or two. They have a good farm, they don’t necessarily need more prospects to add to their system. I think they can win in ‘26 if they keep their roster together.
The Rockies have the worst record in baseball thanks in most part to a rotation that hasn't pitched well and an offense that has struggled to score runs. They do have some good bullpen arms that are hot topics on the trade market. Sean Halvorsen is a hard throwing righty and Jake Bird had a good first half that earned him all-star recognition. Second baseman Ryan McMahon is a potential trade chip as is starter German Marquez. Marquez has pitched some good games and he could be the Rockies most sought after player at the deadline. One thing is certain, the Rockies are way gone in ‘25. It’s a team that features some good young players in Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Jeff Beck and Tyler Alexander. They’ll be playing loose in the second half with nothing on the line but the opportunity to win a game. Often a team like that is dangerous and can spoil your week. They could win some games. They could challenge the White Sox for the worst regular season record of all time.
The Nationals pitching is bad. The rotation is bad. The bullpen is worse. I'd expect closer Kyle Finnegan to be traded. He has been the Nationals best reliever two seasons running and is on an expiring contract. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe is a highly sought after slugger that will also likely be delt in the next couple weeks. Alex Call may get a call to the manager’s office and a first class ticket out of town, he has had a good season at the plate and may be one of the better outfielders available at the trade deadline. Josh Bell and Keiber Ruiz could both be traded but they haven't hit this season and neither would bring much value to a contender. Mackenzie Gore is their ace and would be the best starter on the trade market if they were to entertain trade talks but it would be a stunner if they moved him. He is part of a young core of players that they had been building around. Michael Soroka is a starter who could be on the move. He has made some good starts this season and is on a competitive one year deal with the Nats this season.
The Pirates are known to be sellers at the trade deadline. Second baseman Adam Frazier has already been sent out of town in a trade with the Royals that returned SS propsect Cam Devanney. As a team this season, the Pirates’ pitching has been good. Their offense has fallen short. They have a pair of starters that are drawing a lot of interest in the trade market. They could potentially move both Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter. I'd think it would be starter Andrew Heaney that would be traded. He is on a low AAV deal that expires after the season and Heaney has thrown some good innings but all the talk has been centered around Keller and Falter. Relievers David Bednar, Caleb Ferguson and Dennis Santana are also available and have drawn trade interest. An Oneil Cruz trade isn't off the table either. Pirates starting SS Isiah Kiner Falefa has been their best hitter this season, he too likely will be traded to a team in contention. With Paul Skenes in tow, they will certainly look to compete soon. I’m not certain they can. Trading Skenes is their best pathway to adding impact players. Skenes would bring back a group of players that could bolster the Pirates for years to come. But keeping Skenes around for another season is likely and doing so will have the Pirates seeking to add some prospects here in the next couple weeks.