AL Playoff Picture
The second half of the MLB season resumed a few days ago. I have been working on my picks for the AL playoffs over the all-star break and it looks like there are ten teams in contention heading into the July 31st trade deadline. I'd count the Twins, Royals, Orioles, A's and White Sox out of contention but if last season is any reminder, don't count the Royals out until Jac Caglionone is batting under .100 for the season.
Division Winners
The Astros played themselves into first place in the AL West without all-star DH Yordan Alvarez and a trio of opening day starters in Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Alvarez and Arrighetti will make their season debuts in the second half, Wesneski and Blanco are out with UCL injuries. A healthy Alvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball and will add a potent bat to a lineup that has hit well all season. Jeremy Pena should also return soon and he had an MVP first half before hitting the IR with a fractured rib. It’s been one of the best lineups in baseball this season thanks in large part to third baseman Isaac Parades and rookie outfielder Cam Smith, both of whom came over to the team in the Kyle Tucker trade with the Cubs. Jake Meyers and Jacob Melton have both played well in center field and left field respectively which will allow future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve to return to second base when the forementioned Alvarez returns. The catching duo of Victor Caratini and Yanier Diaz has also produced well offensively. The Astros have the best bullpen in the MLB and they have two aces in the rotation in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Cristian Javier had front of the rotation stuff before his TJ and he is expected back in the second half. There were rumors that Houston was in the market for a starter at the trade deadline but with how well rookies Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter have pitched this season and with both Arrighetti and Lance McCullers Jr. back in the mix, they’ll have good depth in the rotation, a great bullpen and an offense that can score a lot of runs. They don’t have many holes to contend with. I'd make them the favorites to win the AL West and the AL Crown for a first round bye in the playoffs.
The Tigers are 11.5 games up on the Guardians entering the second half and have run away with the AL Central. I'd say they are safely ahead of and are far better than the Guardians, Twins and the Royals. They are a lock to make the postseason and will be competing in the second half for first place in the AL standings. The return of Reece Olson will bolster their rotation but they are still short a starter with the season ending injury to top prospect Jackson Jobe. Jack Flaherty has struggled at times this season and while their top two of Skubal and Mize are as good as any tandem in MLB, the Tigers could use a third front line starter to hedge any potential injuries down the stretch. Skubal aside, SS Javier Baez has been the team’s first half MVP. Off season acquisition Gleybar Torres has had an equally impressive first half. They have good hitters one thru nine and have some slugging in the middle with former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson having the best season of his career. I like their bullpen too. Will Vest has been very reliable in the ninth. Brant Hurter, Tommy Kahnle and Chase Lee have all pitched well in high leverage spots. Keiber Montero will move to the bullpen and add depth to a well stocked stable of relievers. Detroit needs a starting pitcher. I expect them to be all in at the trade deadline and to compete for the AL crown. The AL Central is a wrap.
The Blue Jays put together a good July and find themselves in first place in the AL East. It's been the bullpen and the offense winning games for Toronto. Relievers Yimi Garcia and Braydon Fisher have both emerged as reliable options behind Yariel Rodriguez, Brendon Little and closer Jeff Hoffman. Nick Sandlin and Chad Green are quality depth in a bullpen that has been as good as any in MLB. On the offensive side of the ball, the Jays have gotten a lot of production from a number of unheralded players: Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes and Tim Heineman have all hit for Toronto. With Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho on the mend and likely to return, the Jays look set on the offensive side of the ball. They have a solid nine and a good bench that currently leads the league in batting average. They could potentially use a starter but the return of Max Scherzer and the emergence of Eric Lauer have solidified their rotation. Starters Alek Manoah and Bowden Francis both could return this season but a rotation of Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Scherzer and Lauer doesn't really necessitate adding to the rotation. If both Manoah and Francis get healthy, they’ll have a pair of arms to fall back on in the event that one of their starters misses time to an injury. I think the Blue Jays are fairly well set. I like the Blue Jays to win the AL East and make a run at the World Series title.
Wild Card Picks
The Rays look to be farily well set in the pitching department. They have nice depth in the rotation with former Cy Young winner Shane McLanahan expected to return and rookie Joe Boyle throwing good innings. Drew Rasmussen has pitched like an ace this season but is on an innings limit in his return from Tommy John surgery. The Rays will be managing his innings so that he is available for a run in the playoffs. It will test the depth of their rotation but the trio of Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz have all at times flashed front of the rotation stuff and fifth starter Zach Littell has pitched consistently all season. Relievers Edwin Uceta and Eric Orze have had their difficulties in the Rays bullpen but Hunter Bigge and rookie Ian Seymour will likely be back in the mix soon. They already made a trade for lefty reliever Bryan Baker but knowing the Rays and the importance they place on bullpen strength, they could be in the market for another high leverage arm. The offense also looks to be set. First baseman Yandy Diaz is a great hitter and third baseman Junior Caminero has emerged as one of the top sluggers in MLB. They have rookie Chandler Simpson back in the lineup playing centerfield and off season acquisition Ha Song Kim has returned from the IR giving the Rays good depth across both the outfield and the infield. Prospect Carson Williams could also get the call in the second half if the offense is in need of a spark plug. They'll need a healthy Brandon Lowe to make a run at a World Series title but the roster looks good. They are well positioned to compete in the second half. I like the Rays to make the playoffs with a wild card birth.
The Yankees struggled in July, most notably in the pitching department. Max Fried has had a couple bad starts, so has Carlos Rodon. Both are viable aces but it adds to their pitching concerns with Fried and Rodon having a history of arm injuries. They lost Clarke Schmidt for the season to a UCL injury. Rookie Will Warren has been blown up on multiple occassions. The Yanks have been forced to start veteran Marcus Stroman who has an inning clause in his contract that triggers a player option in ‘26. It’s an option they would like to avoid. Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, is expected to return to the rotation but hasn't thrown a pitch all season. Veteran long man Ryan Yarbrough pitched some good innings in the rotation but can't be counted on too heavily. Prospect Cam Schlittler made a start before the All-Star break in what could have been an audition for a potential trade here in the next two weeks. They need an ace, an arm or two in the bullpen and they could use a third baseman who can hit the ball. It will be interesting to see who they trade and who they trade for. I like Schlittler a lot and think the Yankees do to. I'd be surprised to see them move Schlittler at the deadline but would think that Schlittler slots in behind Warren and Gil and if the Yankees do trade for a starter that likely sends Schlittler, who picked up a win in his debut, back to AAA Scranton. He doesn't help them win this year in AAA. They don’t have a great bullpen. They need multiple pitchers and they’ll have to pony up the farm assets to acquire them but they have the prospects to make it happen. It's an interesting situation for a team that has been known to trade away pitching prospects in the past. The Yankees will be making a trade or two and their offense should be good enough to keep them in playoff contention barring any major injuries. I like the Yanks to make the postseason with Aaron Judge winning the AL MVP.
The Mariners currently hold the sixth and final playoff spot in the AL. I'd say that Seattle is most likely to fall in the second half without a trade for a bat and some help from their farm system. The starting pitching has potential to be great but doesn’t have a great deal of depth and has been teetering on precarious with injuries to aces Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Bryce Miller has also been sidelined with an elbow injury and his return is uncertain. The bullpen has pitched well but isn't that deep and the offense is full of holes. If Gilbert and Kirby return to form and stay healthy, the Mariners starting rotation can win them games. If one or the other returns to the injured list, the Mariners' rotation will be significantly weakened. Rookie Lee Evans has pitched well but is ideally their fifth man up. Prospect Harry Ford could make the transition to the outfield and could potentially be a nice addition in the second half but Seattle has a lot of needs in the field. A reliable bat at the tradeline would help them tremendously. A bullpen arm would also help but I'd say their season rides on the arms of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. With them both pitching well, the Mariners get in the playoffs.
The Contender
The Red Sox got hot at the end of June and into the all-star break. Catcher Carlos Narvaez should garner some Rookie of the Year votes and Ceddanne Rafaella has proven to be more than just a gold glove caliber centerfielder. Rookie Roman Anthony has hit well for Boston since his late June call up and rookie Marcelo Mayer looks like he will remain with the team into October providing middle infield depth. They'll get all-star third baseman Alex Bregman back in the lineup and Masataka Yoshida too. Yoshida is a good hitter and could set the table for the offense in the second half. Boston seemingly has a hole at first base but between Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro, they have gotten good production from what could be looked at as a weakness. Their pitching has been good too. Garrett Crochet has pitched like an ace all season. Brayan Bello has had his best season to date and veteran Lucas Giolito looks like his old self. The back end of the rotation has been a weakness and the bullpen could use a high leverage arm but Boston is in it, they have a good team. They need a starter. Taylor Houck could return but even if he finds his 2024 form, they still lack depth in the rotation. If Boston makes a big move for an ace at the trade deadline, Houck and Buehler could both be good in the bullpen with Richard Fitts holding down the fifth spot in the rotation. Boston can win the AL East and is certainly a viable contender for the playoffs despite their early season turmoil.
Buyers or Sellers?
The Guardians have good pitching, they could get Shane Bieber back after the all-star break for a rotation of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Bieber and Slade Cecconi at the five. I’d make Bieber the four in that group and he is a former Cy Young winner. Luis Ortiz Jr. could return to the team too but is currently being investigated for a gambling violation. The Guardians bullpen is pretty good. Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith have been two of the best relievers in MLB this season. But Cleveland has been as bad as any team in MLB on the offensive side of the ball. They are 29th in batting average and 26th in runs scored. There have been murmurings that the Guardians are entertaining offers on all-star outfielder Stephen Kwan. Kwan has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past three seasons. If the Guardians move Kwan, it’s a complete rebuild and they will be open for business, entertaining offers on the rotation and their bullpen as well. Their lineup has too many holes to compete this season. I’d count them as certain sellers at the deadline. The question is are they keeping Kwan or are they moving Kwan? Do they trade Bieber? I’d think they keep the young controllable arms for ‘26. Bieber would be an interesting add for a team in contention. He hasn’t thrown an inning all season but his career accolades would have teams interested despite the uncertainty and the salary commitments.
The Rangers haven’t played their best baseball all season and find themselves within striking distance in the AL West. I had them winning the division in my preseason picks and still believe that they could make a run at it in the second half. But they will need to find some offense. They haven’t hit all season. Jake Burger has been a disappointment. Marcus Semien and Wyatt Langford have both had down years. Adolis Garcia has also hit poorly into July. Joc Pederson has been non-existent. But those guys have all hit the ball in MLB and can potentially put it together for the next couple months. If they get rolling, if they start hitting, they have some good starting pitching. Jacob DeGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are both in the running for the AL Cy Young and Jack Leiter is a potential ace, he has started to pitch well for Texas. Jon Gray is likely to return to the rotation. Gray is recovering from a wrist injury that has had him sidelined all season. His arm will be fresh. Patrick Corbin has had a resurrgent season and is my pick for Comeback Player of the Year. Tyler Mahle is on the IR with a shoulder injury, he was one of the best starters in MLB through June, and Kumar Rocker has had some good starts this season. The Rangers have quality depth in the rotation but they are up against the CBT threshold and aren’t going to add any salary at the deadline. It makes it difficult for them to add any pieces in a deadline deal but if Mahle returns strong, they could move Gray and Rocker to the bullpen, both would be solid high leverage arms. A trade of Mahle isn’t out of the question. He has performance kickers in his contract that could jeopardize their CBT number. If Mahle throws some bullpens before the end of the month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas trade him for a bat or a bullpen arm.
Could Surprise
The Angels win the MLB’s team overacheivement award in ‘25. It's frankly hard to believe that the Angels are only two games out of the wild card. Their bullpen was a wreck into June. I had thought that they had the worst bullpen in MLB. They have pitched far better in June and July. Reid Detmers has been reliable, Ryan Zeferjahn has made some progress too. Their starting pitching doesn't look great on paper but Kikuchi, Anderson and Soriano have all pitched well this season and Kyle Hendriks has gotten them some good innings. On paper, looking at the stats, I don't like their pitching staff, but they have continued to pitch well enough to keep them in games and the bullpen has managed to pull it together enough to close out some wins. Their offense on paper also looks average at best but Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have set the table well for the Angels and Mike Trout has raked liked the Mike Trout of yesteryear since returning from the IR. Joe Adell, Jorge Soler and Taylor Ward have provided some slugging and catcher Logan O'Hoppe can put the ball out of the yard too. The Angels are fifth in MLB in homeruns. I'm surprised by the Angels this season. I would say that they are likely to fade in the second half but this is a team that wants to get Mike Trout to the playoffs. Nobody wants a playoff game more than Trout who hasn't been to the playoffs in his entire career. Being in contention at the deadline could make them buyers. They will be looking for bullpen arms. If they get a pair of good relievers and their starting pitching holds up, they can hit a little and they could surprise with a playoff birth.
The Royals had one of the better rotations entering the season and after last season’s epic run to a playoff birth, I had picked KC to win the AL Central in '25. They traded Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India. Ace Cole Ragans has delt with injuries all season. They still have had a good rotation with Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic all pitching well. Noah Cameron could garner some Rookie of the Year consideration and has been a bright spot for the team. But Lugo is on an expiring contract and the Royals can’t hit. India has been a relative bust, he hasn’t had a bad season but he hasn’t had a good season either. Kyle Isbel hasn’t offered any production out of center field and veteran slugger Salvador Perez has had a difficult year at the plate despite heating up some in July. Maikel Garcia has had a breakout season. Bobby Witt Jr. is a perenniel all-star. The Italians Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglionone should be stalwarts in the Royals lineup for years to come but they don’t have enough offense to win this season. Despite their seemingly insurmountable deficiencies, the Royals have been adding to the roster at the deadline. They added second baseman Adam Frazier in a trade with Pittsburgh and gave up a prospect to get him. It signals that they are looking to compete this season. I’d be surprised if they held onto Lugo. I’d be surprised if they made a run like they did last season. But if they get a nice bat in return for Lugo at the deadline and get Ragans back in the rotation they could make a run with Ragans, Bubic, Wacha and Cameron leading the way.
Out Of Contention
The Orioles are already selling off, they traded reliever Bryan Baker to the Rays for a draft pick and it is likely that they’ll attempt to move off of Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, Andrew Kittredge, Seranthony Dominguez, and Gregory Soto too. They are selling everybody they can to dump salary and add prospects. They may not get much in return but they shouldn’t have a problem moving any of the players listed for low A ball propsects. In fact, they could do better. Morton has been excellent in June and July and Ramon Laureano may be one of the better outfielders on the trade market. Mullins too, for that matter, despite a significant regression after a hot start to the season. Ryan O’Hearn is having a career year and Ryan Mountcastle is a veteran who can add some offense to a lot of clubs around the league. It will be interesting to see how many trades the O’s make and what kind of return they get for the players that they do move. After the deadline, expect to see prospects Enrique Bradfield Jr., Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in the lineup for Baltimore. All are highly touted and will make the O’s an interesting team to follow into September. They’ll stick with Dean Kremer and rookies Brandon Young and Cade Povich in the rotation. Rookie Chase McDermott will likely get a call up too. Kyle Bradish could return from his Tommy John later this season and throw some innings. They could win a few games but will mostly be auditioning players for starting jobs in ‘26.
I'd also count the Twins out, their starting pitching looks to be an insurmountable hurdle to remaining in contention. They got hot in May and put together the longest winning streak of the season in MLB (13 games). Ace Joe Ryan should be in consideration for the AL Cy Young but Minnesota lost starter Pablo Lopez to the IR and starters Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack lost their A game somewhere in the month of June. David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson have kept them in some games but aren't front of the rotation starters. That’s one ace and four backend starters and you can’t win with a rotation of fours and fives. Even if they get Pablo Lopez back from the IR, they are still short a pair of reliable starting pitchers. It makes the Twins clear sellers in my opinion with Danny Coulombe being their best trade chip. The lefty reliever has an 0.59 ERA on the season and lefty relievers are in high demand. Coulombe will be easy to trade, he has an expiring contract with a 3M dollar AAV and he will bring back a top prospect. There are murmurings of the Twins also considering trades for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, their two best bullpen arms. Both are controllable beyond the ‘25 season. Both would bring back good prospects at the trade deadline but they have been very important to the Twins success and replacing either in free agency will be expensive.
The Athletic's have long been out of contention despite an offense that looks formidable. They have no pitching. It’s Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs at the top. Both have pitched well but both were bad deals for the A’s this off season. Severino cost them 20M per for three seasons and Springs cost them prospect Joe Boyle and a first round draft pick. Boyle has pitched like an ace with the Rays this season. JP Sears flashes some potential but he is ultimately a three at best. Mitch Spence and JT Ginn have had some success but both are back end rotation pieces. Top prospect Osvaldo Bido blew out of the rotation and looks to be at home in the bullpen. Rookie Jacob Lopez has been the bright spot for the A’s in the pitching department and may be the only one who makes the team in ‘26. The A’s bullpen has been worse than the rotation. Mason Miller is still throwing the heater and is still a top flight bullpen piece but he has had more than few bad games this season. He could be on the table at the trade deadline. With as bad as the A’s rotation is, he might be stretched out in an audition to start games in '26. Both are options. The offense is hitting well. If the A’s have anything going in the right direction it’s the bats. Brent Rooker and Larry Butler have both followed through on their off season extensions. Both have had good seasons at the plate. Tyler Soderstrom is a potential all-star in my opinion once he gets settled into a position. Rookie Nick Kurtz took over at first base and Kurtz is an epic masher. He is like the second coming of Mark McGwire. Second baseman Jacob Wilson is a shoe in for AL Rookie of the Year. He might get some MVP votes too. Shea Langeliers has slugged well when he has been in the lineup. It’s a good team on the offensive side of the ball. It raises some questions in regards to who the A’s might trade, either at the deadline this season or in the off season. They have no reason to rush the decision. If they are entertaining offers on their young core of prospects, Kurtz and Wilson excluded, they are untouchable, the A’s will have leverage at the trade deadline. If they don’t get a sizeable return, they have all off season to consider their options.
The White Sox were rightfully counted out before the season began but have had a great season from my standpoint. The Garrett Crochet trade was a coup for Chicago. The White Sox landed four top prospects from the Boston Red Sox, three of which have already seen action with the big club. Rookie Chase Meidroth, part of the Crochet trade, has settled in as Chicago’s second baseman and while his numbers aren’t nearly as good as fellow rookie Jacob Wilson’s, I think Meidroth will emerge as the White Sox second baseman for years to come. Catcher Kyle Teel, also a Boston import, has made some starts for the Southsiders and Teel looks good, hit well and held his own behind the plate. It’s unclear who will win the starting catcher job in ‘26 with both Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel in the mix. Both are top prospects and both can hit. Mike Tauchman signed a one year deal with the Sox before the season and he has hit himself into a plane ticket at the end of July. He could return a good prospect too with the season he has had at the plate. The White Sox hit on a pair of Rule 5 selections in reliever Mike Vasil and starting pitcher Shane Smith. Smith got off to a great start this season that was good enough to put him in the all star game albeit somewhat undeservingly. He hasn’t pitched well into the summer but he looks to be a legitimate three or four and could remain in the rotation for ‘26. Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin have both pitched well this season. Both righties utilize the same pitch mix as Greg Maddux. They are twin Maddux clones, one is Arnold (Cannon) and the other is Devito (Martin), but both can pitch and both are flying under the radar. I think they will emerge as the Sox’ two best starters in ‘26. Sean Burke has also pitched well. That’s four promising starters on top of top prospects Grant Taylor, Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz. It’s not all bad on the Southside. If they can trade Tauchman, trade Luis Robert, trade a couple bullpen arms, add a few prospects, the Sox could be back in contention next season with a good young team and some real good pitching.