Today's Pick: SDP (-180) over WSH

The Nationals travel south 200 miles to San Diego to open a series with the Padres in an 8:40 CDT start at Petco Stadium.

Mitchell Parker starts for the Nats with a worn out Nationals bullpen working behind him.  Parker enters with a 4.59 ERA on the season, it's a mark that is fairly accurate for the 25 year old righty out of San Jacinto, TX.  He has had a couple good outings over his last five starts but he has also allowed seven big flys over his last 25.0IP.  That's good for a 2.52 HR/9.  It's like cabbage to a vegetarian.  His 50.5% hard hit rate is well above league average and his K/BB ratio isn't all that good either.

Stephen Kolek has emerged as a legitimate rotation presence this season.  While he also sports a below average hard hit rate and a weak K/BB ratio, his ground ball rate is one of the best in MLB and he has only allowed 0.9HR/9 on the season.  The righty is good for five innings and is likely to keep the Friars in the game.  

The Padres bullpen is fully rested.  All eight of their relievers are available to pitch, six with a days rest.  San Diego's bullpen has been one of the best in MLB.  

The Nats have Brad Lord and Kyle Finnegan on a days rest but are well worked beyond their top two.  If Parker gets into trouble early, they will have to rely on a pair of righties, Zach Brzykcy and Eduardo Salazar, in middle relief.  Both have been outside of the top 150 relievers in MLB all season. If they can knock the lefty Parker out early, the Padres will have a substantial advantage in the later innings.  

It's San Diego's best lineup tonight.  They'll get Jose Iglesias in at second base with Jake Cronenworth sliding over to first.  I am a fan of Iglesias and think he is a good hitter.  He is a bat to be wary of in the bottom of the Padres order.

The Nats have been hitting well of late but they have also played 13 games in a row without a day off and are in the midst of a long road trip.  The Padres have been at home for a few days and are coming off a home series win against the Royals.  

I like the Padres tonight.  The starting pitching matchup isn't the edge but it's put a good price on the game.  The Padres bullpen and offense wins this one.  With 3.93 units in play, I'm going to rack a unit and bet 2.93 units on San Diego to win.

Today's Pick:  SDP (-180) over WSH
Units in Play:  3.93
Units Wagered:  2.93
Ticket Pays:  4.55 units (+1.62 units)
Current Streak: 5
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  68.36 units
Current Bank Balance:  28 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  18 units
Profit / Loss (season):  +6.0 units
Overall Record:  30-11





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