Today's Pick: SDP (-130) over CIN

The Friars traveled east from the west coast's beautiful beaches and cool ocean breezes to the Midwest metropolis known as Cincinnatti, home of the chili dog.  They'll open a three game series with the Reds in a 6:10 CDT start at The Great American Ballpark.  

The Reds (42-39) are in the hunt for a wild card and this series with the Padres (44-36) could have playoff implications for both teams as we near the trade deadline.  

Dylan Cease (3-6) starts for San Diego.  Cease was traded to the Padres a season ago and has been a good number two for the club.  He makes his 17th start on the year and is well on his way to five straight seasons with 30 or more starts.  For a pitcher who throws as hard as Cease (he sits 97 mph with his fastball) and who throws as many sliders as Cease does (he throws close to 50% sliders) you'd think he would miss some starts.  But he has been a stalwart in the rotation again this season, throwing 87.1 innings, posting a 4.41 ERA in the process. Not fantastic, but a 3.01 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests that he has been much better.  His 11.20 K/9 is one of the best marks in MLB amongst qualified starters.  

Nick Martinez starts for Cincinnatti.  Martinez hasn't made a start since June 19th.  He gave up seven hits, three homers and seven earned runs in that outing.  In his start on June 13th, he allowed eight hits, three homers and four earned runs.  He has slowly declined all season and hasn't been nearly as effective as he was in his breakout 2024 campaign.  His K/BB ratio is down substantially from 6.44 to 3.32.  Martinez has posted the lowest ground ball rates of his career in 2025 which has subsequently led to a high AIR percentage (flyballs + line drives + pop outs) -- that doesn't play well at The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnatti.  It is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB. 

I like the pitching matchup.  Cease gives the Padres a big edge on the mound.  I also like the Padres to put some runs on Nick Martinez.  San Diego has some good power hitters in their lineup.  Tatis, Merrill, Machado and Sheets can all put the ball over the fence and make it an early night for the Red's starter.

Both teams had a day off yesterday.  Both bullpens are well rested but I think it's the Padres bats that win this game tonight.  I'm going to play one unit on San Diego and I like the price at (-130).  

Today's Pick:  SDP (-130) over CIN
Units in Play:  1.00
Units Wagered:  1.00
Ticket Pays:  1.77 units (+0.77 units)
Current Streak: 0
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  72.03 units
Current Bank Balance:  26 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  18 units
Profit / Loss (season):  +4.0 units
Overall Record:  31-13

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