Today's Pick: HOU (-165) over OAK

I had a pick and a post all written up.  I spent a good hour putting it together.  I liked Skubal in the early game and had planned on playing two picks with an early win but the Tigers got rained out and I decided to scrap my post and start over.  

We still got the Astros game tonight and Framber Valdez.  Framber makes his fifteenth start of the season and has been racking the K's over his last five, averaging 11.92 K/9.  You can't dig up any dirt on this guy.  There isn't any.  He has averaged 6.0 IP a start, he doesn't give up a lot of homers, he has excellent K/BB ratios, he pitches good against lefties and righties, he's good at home, he's good on the road.  He's pitched better on short rest than he has with an extra day off.  He is consistent and one of MLB's best.

Luis Severino has pitched great on the road.  His numbers at home aren't that good.  His 7.10 ERA in home starts is over 52.0 IP.  It's not a couple starts that have adversely affected his numbers.  He has consistenly pitched bad in Sacramento.  

This is a guy who played with the Mets in 2024.  He came up with the Yankees and had played his entire career in NYC prior to signing with the A's in the offseason.  He is used to his New York lifestyle.  Concierge, nice facilities, cushy clubhouse accomodations.  It could be the mound, maybe his wife gets on his nerves, but it's likely that he unhappy with the digs at the AAA ballpark and it has an affect on his performance.  Either way, his home and away split is significant and the numbers say that Severino is a dog in home starts.  

Severino also doesn't pitch well on short rest.  His split between four days rest and five-plus days rest is also noticeable.  Opponents have hit .305 with an OPS of .814 off the A's hurler this season when he starts on short rest compared to a batting average of .215 and an OPS of .609 with five or more days off.  

Both splits are working against Severino and the A's tonight. 

Oakland hasn't had a day off since June 12th and they don't have another day off until next week.  A's Manager Mark Kotsay will be looking to conserve his struggling bullpen but might not have any other option than to make an early call for relief.  

The Astros have Issac Parades back in the lineup, rookie Cam Smith had a big game yesterday with two homers.  Astro's Ace Framber Valdez starts on the mound.  It's a real good price at (-165).  I like Houston to tonight.

Today's Pick:  HOU (-165) over OAK
Units in Play:  1.48
Units Wagered:  1.48
Ticket Pays:  2.38 units (+0.90 units)
Current Streak: 1
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  58.59 units
Current Bank Balance:  28 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  15 units
Profit / Loss (season):  +3.0 units
Overall Record:  26-11

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