Today's Pick: DET (-200) over PIT

I've done some research.  It was challenging.  It's difficult to find an edge in this game but I think I have a couple soy nuggets for you today.  

The Tigers and the Pirates open a three game series at Comerica Park in Detroit.  Both teams had the day off yesterday with Pittsburgh traveling after losing a series with the Cubs.  Pittsburgh is in the midst of a seven game road trip and enter today's game with a road record of 10-25.  

The Tigers don't necessarily have a home split working in their favor as a team but Casey Mize (6-2) has pitched better at home this season, posting a 1.54 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over four home starts.  Mize, who takes the ball for Detroit, is also tough on lefties. This should play well against Pittsburgh's lineup.  

Bailey Falter starts for Pittsburgh.  Falter has impressed this season.  He posted a 0.76 ERA in May over 35.2IP but his .BABIP over that same period is extremely low at .163 and he has an xFIP of 4.64, almost four runs higher than his ERA.  He doesn't have an overpowering arsenal, utilizing a five pitch mix with two looks to his fastball and a good splitter but he isn't a strikeout pitcher.  He doesn't get a lot of ground balls either.  Both his AIR rates and his barrell rates are above league average and his K/BB ratio is just 1.84 on the season.  

The Tigers, as a team, hit lefties well, better than they do righties.  They also have a good track record against finesse pitchers, which is exactly what I would consider Falter.

Both bullpens are well rested.  Tiger's closer Will Vest is dealing with a injured finger but they have Tommy Kahnle back in the fold and recent acquisition Matt Gage has pitched well.

Pittsburgh's bullpen has been good, they could win this game for the Pirates tonight, but I still like Detroit.  They have been home for a week and are coming off a day's rest.  Mize is a better pitcher at Comerica and I like the lefty Falter to give up a handful of runs early to a Tiger's team that can hit left-handed pitching.  Detroit could put a big number on the board and Mize and the Tiger's bullpen should be good enough to carry Detroit to a win.

I am putting a unit on the Tigers to win at (-210).

Today's Pick:  DET (-210) over PIT
Units in Play:  1.0
Units Wagered:  1.0
Ticket Pays:  1.48 units (+0.48 units)
Current Streak: 0
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  57.11 units
Current Bank Balance:  28 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  15 units
Profit / Loss (season):  +3.0 units
Overall Record:  25-11


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