Sunday, June 15th: No Picks Today

It's sort of like going on the 10 day IR with shoulder fatigue.  

The teams and the true parity across the league is beginning to show up in the matchups from day to day.  Pitchers who had hot starts are regressing, pitchers who had slow starts are posting quality starts and it really takes patience and insight into the games and the teams to find an edge that is worth putting a bet on.

I'm a traditionalist when it comes to statistics.  I like to see the ERA, WHIP, K/BB ratios and innings pitched from the pitchers but I'm coming around to the FIP (fielding independent pitching) and the SIERA (skill Interactive earned run average).  I like ERA as my primary indicator of who is pitching well but comparing the ERA to the SIERA can help to indicate a pitcher who is due for regression, or a pitcher who has been legitimately good.  

If a pitcher has a 2.90 ERA over his last five starts, and his SIERA over those starts is close to that number, than that pitcher has been legitimately effective.  If, however, a pitcher with a 2.90 ERA has a high SIERA, say of 4.50, that suggests he has gotten some help from timely outs, good defense, double play balls, etc...

It is something to look for when researching starting pitchers. 

I'm also looking for a method to track bullpens.  They are finnicky.  A bad bullpen one month can be amongst the league's best the next month.  It's important to follow the bullpen's closely, monitoring both the individuals and the collective performance as a team.  One or two good relievers with a day's rest can be a big advantage for a team.  Monitoring the day to day workloads of each team's bullpen can produce a definite edge and is one of the more important aspects of making good picks day to day.

Hopefully back to the picks soon, I didn't get as much studies in as I would have hoped to but feel like I made some progress so I should be ready to go soon.  



Popular posts from this blog

Today's Pick: CIN (-165) over MIA

The Reds and the Marlins conclude a four game series at The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, OH, it's a 4:10 CDT first pitch.  The Marlins took the first two games of the series but the Reds battled back in game three, winning 7-2 on another quality start from lefty Andrew Abbott.   It's lefty Nick Lodolo starting for the Reds this afternoon.  Lodolo has been prone to giving up the long ball and leads the league in hit batsman.  Oddly, he doesn't walk that many hitters.  Strikeouts are his game, he has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning this season.  It's Lodolo's last start before the All Star break, he'll be charged up and should let it rip today.   Cal Quantrill starts for Miami.  I like Cal Quantrill.  He has pitched well this season and should be under consideration for a trade at the end of July.  Miami's management has been closely watching his pitch count and does everything in their power to keep him from get...
Read more

Today's Pick: A 2 Team Parlay

I have 1.56 units in play after yesterday's quasi-disappointment.   I'm going to rack a unit, and play a two team parlay tonight.  I've been stuck on 32 units banked for two weeks now.   I can't stand the number 32.  It has everything to do with Magic Johnson.  I don't like magic and I don't like Johnson.   Anyhow, now that we have 33 units in the bank, I feel better. Jose Canseco wore number 33.  Still one of my favorite players of all time.   No analysis today, I'm just making a pick.  My season for the most part is over.  I have 0.56 units in play, 4.0 units in my account, and 33 units in the bank.   The pick is a parlay on the Astros (-350) ML / Blue Jays (-175) ML for a (+105) payout. I like the pick.  Im happy with the plus money.  Have to win them both to cash a ticket but I like the play.   Today's Pick:  PAR:  TOR (-180) ML / HOU (-350) ML over Units in Play:  0.56...
Read more

Wednesday, August 6th: No Pick Today

No pick today, there isn't much on the board that I liked.  I didn't dig into any games but the Giants and the Pirates early this morning.  I liked the Giants but they don't hit left handed pitching all that well and Pirates had a well rested bullpen.  The Giants won that game 4-2.   I had thought about putting on my three dogs play with the Rangers, Reds and the Royals.  The Reds are down 6-0.  That would have been a loser.   There are some games later this afternoon and some late games too but I am going to take a pass on the action today and see if I can find a good spot tomorrow.   I'm sitting at 5.36 units in play and have a four game Pickstreak on the line.  We'll look to make it five in a row tomorrow.  
Read more