Today's Pick: TEX (-185) over CHW

The Rangers traveled last night after getting blanked by lefty Carlos Rodon and the New York Yankees bullpen. Texas has now lost four in a row while averaging only 3.1 runs per game over their last ten, only slightly worse than the 3.35 RPG mark that they have posted on the season.  

Texas may be 26th out of 30 teams in MLB in scoring, but I like the Rangers to win this evening in a 6:40 CDT start at Rate Field in Chicago. They will play the Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox, at 3.28RPG, are 28th out of 30 in scoring.  

This pick is mostly about the pitching matchup.  Tyler Mahle starts for Texas.  At age 30, Mahle is having the finest season of his career, his ninth in MLB.  In 2024, Mahle dramatically overhauled his pitch mix.  He moved to throwing his four seamer / splitter / cutter 90% of the time.  Prior to '23 he relied heavily on a slider to strike hitters out.  Since the change, his strikeouts are down, but his control has improved and he has kept the ball in the yard at league best 0.3HR/9.  In '25, Mahle is 5-1 on the season and has posted a 1.47 ERA.  

Sean Burke starts for the White Sox.  Burke has struggled with his control since making the move into the rotation. His 5.1BB/9 and 1.22 SO/BB are some of the lowest marks amongst qualifying starters in MLB.  Burke used to post double digit K/9 numbers, he is currently at 6.2K/9. His hits per nine is way up, his HR/9 is up, his BB/9 is up.  It's fairly clear that something is off with Burke.  What exactly is a bigger question.  His pitch mix hasn't changed much.  His velo is down one mph on his fastball but for the most part is the same as it was in '24.  The movement on his pitches is similar.  It's likely an injury or something between the ears but at this point a trip to the IR or a move to the bullpen is likely. 

The White Sox were off yesterday, their bullpen may be well rested but that hasn't been any sort of advantage for them this season.  They have had one of the worst bullpen's in MLB.

With a four game Pickstreak on the line and 2.62 units in play, I'm pressing it all on Texas to win at (-185).  The Rangers are still without Corey Seager, but I really like the pitching matchup.  

Today's Pick:  TEX (-185) over CHW
Units in Play:  2.62
Units Wagered:  2.62
Ticket Pays:  4.03 units (+1.41 units)
Current Streak:  4
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  41.26 units
Current Bank Balance:  31 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  11 units
Profit / Loss (season):  +2.0 units
Overall Record:  19-8


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