Today's Pick: LAD (-180) over CLE

I've got twenty five minutes to game time, I've been dilly-dallying around for a few hours now.  I could of had the Dodgers at (-165) but I'll take them at (-180).

It's not so much the pitching matchup today as it is the Dodger's offensive prowess in comparison to their opponents.  The Dodger's lineup looks stacked to me.  Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Hernandez have to be the most formidable top of the order in MLB.  Smith, Muncy, Pages and Kim have a collective OBP somewhere around .350.  The Dodger's 5 thru 9 are hitting close to .250 as a group.  Those are pretty good numbers for the bottom half of the lineup.  
 
The Guardians have the best lead off hitter in baseball in Steven Kwan, and Jose Ramirez is a perenniel allstar but Bo Naylor in the two hole has an OBP of just .295, and Kyle Manzardo in the four hole has struck out nearly 30% of his at bats.  The bottom of the Guardians lineup is hitting around .220 with an OBP below .300.  

Both starters can win the game for their respective teams but Yamamoto has had the better numbers this season, and the Guardians don't hit well against power pitchers.  Yamamoto has one of the best fastball / splitter combinations in baseball.

Gavin Williams has a good fastball too, he sits 97 with the four seamer, but opponents have hit over .300 against the pitch.  William's calling card is his breaking stuff, he has a great curve ball and a great sweeper but he throws 45% four seamers.  He uses his fastball to work counts and setup his breaking pitches, and he hasn't been able to blow it past many hitters this season.  

The Dodger's are a good hitting team and they hit finesse pitchers well.  They like to hit fastballs early in the count and will sit fastball when they are behind in the count.  If they get ahead in the count, they will smash every fastball that comes humming into the zone.  It could be a long night for Williams.    

I have 1.31 units in play. I'm going to press it all on the Dodger's at (-180).  It should be a good duel on the mound but I think Yamamoto has the easier lineup to navigate and has the better night.

Today's Pick:  LAD (-180) over CLE
Units in Play:  1.31
Units Wagered:  1.31
Ticket Pays:  2.04 units (+0.73 units)
Current Streak:  1
Longest Streak:  6

Total Units Wagered (Season):  43.57 units
Current Bank Balance:  30 units
Beginning Bank Balance:  40 units
Total Units Raked (season):  11 units
Profit / Loss (season):  +1.0 units
Overall Record:  20-9

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