Pickstreak: Stats Update

No picks today, as I had alluded to in yesterday's postgame report.  I did look ahead to tomorrow's slate and there are already a few games that I am interested in so stay tuned.

In the meantime, lets go over the statistics:

Opening Account Balance:  40 Units
Current Account Balance:  39.27 Units
Units Raked (bank account):  5 Units
Total Units:  44.27 Units

*I opened my sportsbook account with 40 units.  My current account balance is 39.27 Units, I have withdrawn 5 units from the account to my bank.  I am currently up 4.27 units on the season.  

Return on Investment:  10.68%
Maximum Drawdown:  -5.0%

*My initial investment on the season was 40 units.  This was the most I was prepared to lose.  I look at it as a buy in at a poker tournament.  You don't get that money back unless you play well over the course of the tournament.  In the Pickstreak game (MLB Gambling), you don't get that money back unless you pick wisely and manage risk well over the course of the MLB season.  To date, my accounts are up to 44.27 units, a return on my initial investment of 10.68%.  At no point during the season have I risked a total loss on my account of more than two units, which represents a max drawdown of 5%.  

Total Units Wagered:  11.53 Units
Total Number of Bets:  11 (parlays included)
Average Bet Size:  1.05 Units
Smallest Bet:  0.2 Units
Largest Bet:  2.3 Units
Weighted Average Risk:  .9022 (-110)

*So far, I have made 11 wagers totaling 11.53 units.  That is an average bet size of 1.05 Units.  My bets vary in size day to day, and the odds on each bet vary as well.  To get an accurate idea of the risk that I have taken on across all my bets I calculated a weighted average and found that as a whole, my risk is around -110 American Odds per bet with an ROI on my risk of around 114%.

I have made 11 total bets on the season, two of those bets were parlays.  I included the parlays in my weighted average risk and ROI calculations above.  

If you remove the parlays (-0.58 units on two parlay bets) from my ROI and my weighted average risk calculations, my performance numbers improve dramatically.  I calculate a weighted average risk of my bets (10.95 units total across 9 straight wagers) to be around 0.66 or -150 American Odds with a ROI on my risk of 142%.  

The parlays dramatically reduced my risk / return numbers.  Although I only lost 0.58 units on the two bets, my weighted average risk went from -150 to -110.  That's a 7.5% swing in the odds.  Seemingly harmless losses but if you look at them closely those two bets dramatically reduced my overall performance.  Thats why bookies are always promoting gimmicks and parlays, because they are always bad bets.  

Units In Play:  2.27 Units
Current Pickstreak:  5 games
Longest Pickstreak:  5 games
Total Bets:  9
Win / Loss:  7-2

Good performance so far this season on my wagers.  At 7-2, I currently have a 78% winning percentage.  That winning percentage can only theoretically be sustained if I am placing all my future wagers at -345 American Odds.  

An average risk of -150 per wager carries an expected winning percentage around 60%.  To date, I am picking winners at a rate approximately 18% better than the odds say I should be.  

It's kind of boring, the math and the stats, and in some way it is my own perspective.  You could say the numbers are meaningless except the one that tallies total profit and total losses and you'd be right in a way.  

But it's how you get there that counts.  At no point have I risked a drawdown of more than two units on my initial investment.  

Back to the board tomorrow.  We'll go for six in a row with 2.27 units in play.  

*I am 7-2 in straight wagers on the season with a 5 game winning streak on the line.  I have 2.27 Units in Play.  That represents the maximum value of my next bet. By seperating my account balances from my units in play, I can better manage my account risk over the course of the season.  


















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