Postgame Report: NYY (-125) Loses

If you have followed along, we raked a unit on today's early win and pressed .35 units on the Yankees to win at (-125).  They lost 6-4 to the Guardians.  I didnt follow the game closely but caught the end of it.  Aaron Judge represented the tying run with two outs in the ninth.  Nice to have Judge at the plate, a homer ties the game but Cade Smith struck him out swinging and picked up the save for the Guardians.

It was a game ball to Gavin Williams though, the Guardians righty put in a quality start, his line of 6.1 IP 7H 2ER 8K 2BB looks far better than Clarke Schmidt's who may be better off in the bullpen.  

Pickstreak Season Overview:

Total Units Wagered:  3.65 units
Current Account Balance: 38 units
Beginning Account Balance: 40 units
Total Units Raked:  1 Unit
Profit / Loss:  -1 Unit
Overall Record: 2-2

The interesting part about my system is how it reduced my net loss across the four wagers I have placed to this point from a total of 1.225 units to 1.0 units total.

In my system, I placed four bets with a weighted average risk of -300 per unit.  If I were to place four individual bets at -300 at .9125 units each (3.65 units total wagered), my expected loss would be 1.225 units.  However, in my system, I managed to lose only 1 unit total.  Even though I lost money, Im doing something right.  

Im still working on the system and my numbers but Im sure my math is accurate.  Im sure that I have gained an edge somewhere.  

I essentially got the same odds on my total risk but reduced my net loss by 20%.  






Popular posts from this blog

Today's Pick: CIN (-165) over MIA

The Reds and the Marlins conclude a four game series at The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, OH, it's a 4:10 CDT first pitch.  The Marlins took the first two games of the series but the Reds battled back in game three, winning 7-2 on another quality start from lefty Andrew Abbott.   It's lefty Nick Lodolo starting for the Reds this afternoon.  Lodolo has been prone to giving up the long ball and leads the league in hit batsman.  Oddly, he doesn't walk that many hitters.  Strikeouts are his game, he has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning this season.  It's Lodolo's last start before the All Star break, he'll be charged up and should let it rip today.   Cal Quantrill starts for Miami.  I like Cal Quantrill.  He has pitched well this season and should be under consideration for a trade at the end of July.  Miami's management has been closely watching his pitch count and does everything in their power to keep him from get...
Read more

Today's Pick: A 2 Team Parlay

I have 1.56 units in play after yesterday's quasi-disappointment.   I'm going to rack a unit, and play a two team parlay tonight.  I've been stuck on 32 units banked for two weeks now.   I can't stand the number 32.  It has everything to do with Magic Johnson.  I don't like magic and I don't like Johnson.   Anyhow, now that we have 33 units in the bank, I feel better. Jose Canseco wore number 33.  Still one of my favorite players of all time.   No analysis today, I'm just making a pick.  My season for the most part is over.  I have 0.56 units in play, 4.0 units in my account, and 33 units in the bank.   The pick is a parlay on the Astros (-350) ML / Blue Jays (-175) ML for a (+105) payout. I like the pick.  Im happy with the plus money.  Have to win them both to cash a ticket but I like the play.   Today's Pick:  PAR:  TOR (-180) ML / HOU (-350) ML over Units in Play:  0.56...
Read more

Wednesday, August 6th: No Pick Today

No pick today, there isn't much on the board that I liked.  I didn't dig into any games but the Giants and the Pirates early this morning.  I liked the Giants but they don't hit left handed pitching all that well and Pirates had a well rested bullpen.  The Giants won that game 4-2.   I had thought about putting on my three dogs play with the Rangers, Reds and the Royals.  The Reds are down 6-0.  That would have been a loser.   There are some games later this afternoon and some late games too but I am going to take a pass on the action today and see if I can find a good spot tomorrow.   I'm sitting at 5.36 units in play and have a four game Pickstreak on the line.  We'll look to make it five in a row tomorrow.  
Read more